Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Nov. 16, 2025, 10:17 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Week 13 notes: head-to-head still has major influence since most top teams are connected to each other. Methodology: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = Team A cannot be ranked over Team B that has 2+ fewer losses (ex: 9-3 LSU can be ranked over 10-2 Missouri, but 9-3 LSU cannot be ranked over 11-1 Tulane even if LSU beat Tulane heads up, rankings have LSU over Tulane, and/or I think LSU is better than Tulane) unless Team B is giving a X loss allowance to Team A due to significantly fewer P4 games played. Loss allowances come into play when: P5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 games, 10-8=2, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); P5 teams play 6 fewer P5 games than a G5 team (11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 teams, 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 teams, 8-2=6, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); G5 teams play 10 fewer P5 teams than a P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 10-0=0, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty); or G5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another G5 team (ex: 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 2-0=2, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty). If the game differential exceeds more than 2/6/10/2 in those scenarios, add another loss allowance for each additional P5 game played difference in that scenario.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
+0. Would be the #1 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #8 BYU/#9 Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
+0. Would be the #2 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #7 Ole Miss/#10 Alabama in the Orange Bowl |
| 3 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
+0. Would be the #3 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #6 Texas Tech/#11 Virginia in the Sugar Bowl |
| 4 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
+1. Would be the #4 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #5 Oregon/#12 Tulane in the Cotton Bowl. Head-to-head over Ole Miss |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
+1. Would be the #5 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #12 Tulane in the first round |
| 6 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
+1. Would be the #6 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #11 Virginia in the first round |
| 7 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
+1. Would be the #7 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #10 Alabama in the first round. Head-to-head over Oklahoma |
| 8 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
+9. Would be the #8 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #9 Alabama in the first round. Head-to-head over Alabama |
| 9 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
-5. Would be the #9 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Oklahoma in the first round. Head-to-head over Georgia negated by most losses between Alabama/Georgia/Oklahoma/Ole Miss foursome and then worst loss to FSU. |
| 10 |
BYU Cougars
|
-1. Would be the #10 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #7 Ole Miss in the first round |
| 11 |
Utah Utes
|
-1 |
| 12 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
-1. Would be the #11 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #6 Texas Tech in the first round |
| 13 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
+0. Head-to-head over Notre Dame |
| 14 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
+0. Head-to-head over USC |
| 15 |
USC Trojans
|
+0. Head-to-head over Michigan |
| 16 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
+2 |
| 17 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
+2 |
| 18 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
+4 |
| 19 |
Houston Cougars
|
+5 |
| 20 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
+5. Would be the #12 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #5 Oregon in the first round |
| 21 |
James Madison Dukes
|
NEW |
| 22 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
NEW. Deservedness allowance over North Texas (10 P4 games (P4) - 0 P4 games (G6) = 10 = 1 allowance). Deservedness keeping them behind JMU (10 P4 games (P4) - 1 P4 games (G6) = 9 = 0 allowance) |
| 23 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
NEW. Deservedness allowance over North Texas (10 P4 games (P4) - 0 P4 games (G6) = 10 = 1 allowance). Deservedness keeping them behind JMU (10 P4 games (P4) - 1 P4 games (G6) = 9 = 0 allowance) |
| 24 |
Arizona State Sun Devils
|
NEW. Deservedness allowance over North Texas (10 P4 games (P4) - 0 P4 games (G6) = 10 = 1 allowance). Deservedness keeping them behind JMU (10 P4 games (P4) - 1 P4 games (G6) = 9 = 0 allowance) |
| 25 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
NEW. Deservedness allowance over North Texas (10 P4 games (P4) - 0 P4 games (G6) = 10 = 1 allowance). Deservedness keeping them behind JMU (10 P4 games (P4) - 1 P4 games (G6) = 9 = 0 allowance). Next five: Cincinnati, Pitt, TCU, SMU, San Diego State |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.06 |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Utah Utes
|
0.13 |
| 12 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
1.41 |
| 13 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-0.73 |
| 15 |
USC Trojans
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
-0.26 |
| 19 |
Houston Cougars
|
1.08 |
| 20 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
0.95 |
| 21 |
James Madison Dukes
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
1.13 |
| 23 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
2.16 |
| 24 |
Arizona State Sun Devils
|
0.65 |
| 25 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
0.01 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Texas Longhorns
|
0.99 |
North Texas Mean Green
|
0.77 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.47 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.13 |
Total Score: 10.92