shamShaman Ballot for 2025 Week 12
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 10, 2025, 9:06 p.m.
Overall Rationale: My model only uses on-the-field data from this season to make an opponent-adjusted profile for passing and rushing ypg, scoring efficiency, and a percentage of each of these stats allowed on defense. The model uses this to see how likely each team is to beat each other team, and then ranks teams based on their expected number of wins against the other 135 teams in college football. This win percentage is then scaled by each team's actual win percentage to avoid weirdness like 3-9 Nebraska being ranked when I first started this ranking a few years back. The model doesn't consider recruiting or past seasons so it tends to be better at identifying the surprising teams each season. This week, I also want to point out that it doesn't consider head-to-head results at the end. It only ranks by how many wins a team is expected to get against the other 135 teams in the FBS.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
Expected Wins: 128.14 |
| 2 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
Expected Wins: 125.55 |
| 3 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
Expected Wins: 112.59 |
| 4 |
Oregon Ducks
|
Expected Wins: 110.93 |
| 5 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
Expected Wins: 109.91 |
| 6 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
Expected Wins: 104.30 |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
Expected Wins: 101.82 |
| 8 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
Expected Wins: 101.23 |
| 9 |
Utah Utes
|
Expected Wins: 97.16 |
| 10 |
BYU Cougars
|
Expected Wins: 95.79 |
| 11 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
Expected Wins: 91.45 |
| 12 |
USC Trojans
|
Expected Wins: 90.50 |
| 13 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
Expected Wins: 90.32 |
| 14 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
Expected Wins: 86.92 |
| 15 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
Expected Wins: 86.83 |
| 16 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
Expected Wins: 85.19 |
| 17 |
Texas Longhorns
|
Expected Wins: 84.54 |
| 18 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
Expected Wins: 77.71 |
| 19 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
Expected Wins: 76.97 |
| 20 |
North Texas Mean Green
|
Expected Wins: 75.02 |
| 21 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
Expected Wins: 73.60 |
| 22 |
USF Bulls
|
Expected Wins: 73.17 |
| 23 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
Expected Wins: 72.43 |
| 24 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
Expected Wins: 72.19 |
| 25 |
James Madison Dukes
|
Expected Wins: 71.44 |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.55 |
| 5 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
0.11 |
| 6 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
-0.42 |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-0.28 |
| 8 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Utah Utes
|
1.01 |
| 10 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.66 |
| 12 |
USC Trojans
|
0.49 |
| 13 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-0.50 |
| 18 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
3.60 |
| 19 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
-0.70 |
| 20 |
North Texas Mean Green
|
0.19 |
| 21 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
USF Bulls
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
1.64 |
| 24 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
James Madison Dukes
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Louisville Cardinals
|
1.00 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
0.89 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.17 |
Total Score: 12.22