DataDrivenPirate Ballot for 2025 Week 12
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 10, 2025, 3:14 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Computer model that minimizes the squared error difference between projected spread and actual spread, adjusted for home field advantage (~2.5pts) and with a decay to put more weight in recent games and less weight in games earlier in the season. Ratings are in parentheses in description for select teams.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
(30) Thought they'd fall to #2, but nope, PSU just rocketed up to explain last week's game (#75 -> #30) |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
(27.39) Purdue covered the spread, fire Ryan Day |
| 3 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
(26.81) |
| 4 |
Utah Utes
|
(26.81) |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
(26.53) Maybe PSU isn't actually that bad? Despite no change in rank, their rating improved by 4 points. |
| 6 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
(24.57) Model thought Navy was fraudulent from the beginning, but still a nice 3 point bump in rating. |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
(24.04) Would be #3 if I removed the FSU loss |
| 8 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
(22.97) |
| 9 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
(22.06) |
| 10 |
USC Trojans
|
(21.99) |
| 11 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
|
| 12 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
(20.09) +2 rank, did about what they were supposed to do against Oregon but the 1 point PSU win doesn't weigh them down quite as much anymore |
| 13 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
|
| 14 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
|
| 15 |
Texas Longhorns
|
(18.99) |
| 16 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
(18.78) Dropped 6 spots, still over-rated but look I just don't know what to do here, the model cannot reconcile the past few weeks with their win over Bama so it ends up awkwardly splitting the difference. |
| 17 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
|
| 18 |
BYU Cougars
|
|
| 19 |
USF Bulls
|
|
| 20 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
(17.32) |
| 21 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
|
| 22 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
|
| 23 |
Washington Huskies
|
(15.27) -3 rank change from last week, doesn't seem like enough but the body of work is still fine on a margin basis |
| 24 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
|
| 25 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
(14.62) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.17 |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
1.29 |
| 4 |
Utah Utes
|
2.59 |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.09 |
| 6 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.79 |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
-1.24 |
| 8 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
-4.28 |
| 9 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-2.03 |
| 10 |
USC Trojans
|
1.10 |
| 11 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.66 |
| 12 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
7.40 |
| 13 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-3.43 |
| 15 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
9.22 |
| 17 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
BYU Cougars
|
-1.54 |
| 19 |
USF Bulls
|
1.08 |
| 20 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.26 |
| 22 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Washington Huskies
|
2.17 |
| 24 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
1.24 |
| 25 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
2.58 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
1.00 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
0.89 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
0.52 |
James Madison Dukes
|
0.16 |
North Texas Mean Green
|
0.07 |
Total Score: 45.81