shamShaman Ballot for 2025 Week 10
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 27, 2025, 4:03 p.m.
Overall Rationale: My model only uses on-the-field data from this season to make an opponent-adjusted profile for passing and rushing ypg, scoring efficiency, and a percentage of each of these stats allowed on defense. The model uses this to see how likely each team is to beat each other team, and then ranks teams based on their expected number of wins against the other 135 teams in college football. This win percentage is then scaled by each team's actual win percentage to avoid weirdness like 3-9 Nebraska being ranked when I first started this ranking a few years back. The model doesn't consider recruiting or past seasons so it tends to be better at identifying the surprising teams each season. This week, I also want to point out that it doesn't consider head-to-head results at the end. It only ranks by how many wins a team is expected to get against the other 135 teams in the FBS.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
Expected Wins: 128.38 |
| 2 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
Expected Wins: 124.98 |
| 3 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
Expected Wins: 112.35 |
| 4 |
BYU Cougars
|
Expected Wins: 108.32 |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
Expected Wins: 105.41 |
| 6 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
Expected Wins: 103.68 |
| 7 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
Expected Wins: 102.75 |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
Expected Wins: 101.23 |
| 9 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
Expected Wins: 97.43 |
| 10 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
Expected Wins: 96.51 |
| 11 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
Expected Wins: 94.36 |
| 12 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
Expected Wins: 93.08 |
| 13 |
Utah Utes
|
Expected Wins: 88.41 |
| 14 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
Expected Wins: 85.27 |
| 15 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
Expected Wins: 82.81 |
| 16 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
Expected Wins: 82.78 |
| 17 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
Expected Wins: 82.41 |
| 18 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
Expected Wins: 81.97 |
| 19 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
Expected Wins: 81.38 |
| 20 |
USC Trojans
|
Expected Wins: 79.76 |
| 21 |
Washington Huskies
|
Expected Wins: 79.60 |
| 22 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
Expected Wins: 79.24 |
| 23 |
Texas Longhorns
|
Expected Wins: 77.40 |
| 24 |
Missouri Tigers
|
Expected Wins: 76.10 |
| 25 |
Houston Cougars
|
Expected Wins: 73.78 |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.46 |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.06 |
| 6 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.71 |
| 7 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
0.94 |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
-0.49 |
| 9 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-0.53 |
| 11 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
-0.30 |
| 12 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.00 |
| 13 |
Utah Utes
|
1.61 |
| 14 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
2.73 |
| 17 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.28 |
| 19 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
USC Trojans
|
0.15 |
| 21 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.88 |
| 22 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
-0.76 |
| 23 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
Missouri Tigers
|
-0.07 |
| 25 |
Houston Cougars
|
-0.49 |
Tennessee Volunteers
Navy Midshipmen