Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 20, 2025, 10:48 p.m.

Overall Rationale: My model only uses on-the-field data from this season to make an opponent-adjusted profile for passing and rushing ypg, scoring efficiency, and a percentage of each of these stats allowed on defense. The model uses this to see how likely each team is to beat each other team, and then ranks teams based on their expected number of wins against the other 135 teams in college football. This win percentage is then scaled by each team's actual win percentage to avoid weirdness like 3-9 Nebraska being ranked when I first started this ranking a few years back. The model has been pretty successful the last few years and tends to fall in line with general consensus later in the year, but it does start out a little wonky because even one loss early in the year is a pretty big hit. It also doesn't consider recruiting or past seasons so it tends to be better at identifying the surprising teams each season. This week, I also want to point out that it weights every game equally, so Alabama's loss to FSU matters just as much as if it happened last weekend.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	Expected Wins: 129.86
2	Indiana Hoosiers	Expected Wins: 120.93
3	Texas A&M Aggies	Expected Wins: 112.18
4	BYU Cougars	Expected Wins: 105.12
5	Oregon Ducks	Expected Wins: 103.73
6	Miami Hurricanes	Expected Wins: 100.71
7	Texas Tech Red Raiders	Expected Wins: 100.35
8	Oklahoma Sooners	Expected Wins: 100.32
9	Alabama Crimson Tide	Expected Wins: 99.93
10	Georgia Bulldogs	Expected Wins: 96.95
11	Ole Miss Rebels	Expected Wins: 94.67
12	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	Expected Wins: 92.99
13	Vanderbilt Commodores	Expected Wins: 91.97
14	Missouri Tigers	Expected Wins: 90.73
15	Louisville Cardinals	Expected Wins: 88.18
16	Virginia Cavaliers	Expected Wins: 86.80
17	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	Expected Wins: 86.30
18	USC Trojans	Expected Wins: 80.71
19	Texas Longhorns	Expected Wins: 80.63
20	USF Bulls	Expected Wins: 79.79
21	Utah Utes	Expected Wins: 78.89
22	Michigan Wolverines	Expected Wins: 78.48
23	Illinois Fighting Illini	Expected Wins: 78.36
24	Cincinnati Bearcats	Expected Wins: 78.00
25	North Texas Mean Green	Expected Wins: 77.03

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
2	Indiana Hoosiers	0.00
3	Texas A&M Aggies	0.00
4	BYU Cougars	0.56
5	Oregon Ducks	0.00
6	Miami Hurricanes	0.49
7	Texas Tech Red Raiders	0.97
8	Oklahoma Sooners	0.89
9	Alabama Crimson Tide	-1.21
10	Georgia Bulldogs	-0.76
11	Ole Miss Rebels	0.00
12	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	-0.35
13	Vanderbilt Commodores	0.00
14	Missouri Tigers	0.00
15	Louisville Cardinals	0.00
16	Virginia Cavaliers	0.00
17	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
18	USC Trojans	1.23
19	Texas Longhorns	0.57
20	USF Bulls	0.00
21	Utah Utes	0.69
22	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
23	Illinois Fighting Illini	0.00
24	Cincinnati Bearcats	-0.53
25	North Texas Mean Green	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Tennessee Volunteers	0.67
LSU Tigers	0.42
Arizona State Sun Devils	0.15

Total Score: 9.48