Back to poll results >>

DataDrivenPirate Ballot for 2025 Week 9

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 19, 2025, 12:15 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Computer model that minimizes the squared error difference between projected spread and actual spread, adjusted for home field advantage (~2.5pts) and with a decay to put more weight in recent games and less weight in games earlier in the season.

Rank Team Reason
1 Indiana Hoosiers
2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
3 Ohio State Buckeyes
4 Oregon Ducks
5 Texas Tech Red Raiders
6 Miami Hurricanes ND moves up, and helps keep Miami from dropping even though they lost to Louisville. With Alabama looking great and helping boost FSU, that also helps keep Miami afloat.
7 Alabama Crimson Tide Florida State loss is really holding them back
8 Utah Utes
9 USC Trojans The model gave USC+9, which is about what happened, so USC doesn't drop even with the loss
10 Georgia Bulldogs Model hates Ole Miss so even an 8 point win is seen as an underachievement for Georgia
11 Oklahoma Sooners Michigan win is huge for OU
12 Texas A&M Aggies
13 Florida State Seminoles FSU is slowly sinking week after week, but with Alabama surging even a Stanford loss isn't enough to knock them out of the top 25. They're a completely different team since week 1 (derogatory) but even the decay factor included in the model isn't enough to account for what we're seeing.
14 Michigan Wolverines
15 Vanderbilt Commodores
16 BYU Cougars
17 Texas Longhorns Model just has no idea how to explain a 4.5 point loss (adjusting for location) to Ohio State. OU win is also huge. Crushing SHSU helps too.
18 Ole Miss Rebels
19 Louisville Cardinals Beating Miami is great but it is balanced out by a 5.5 (adjusting for location) loss to UVA. Thinking about treating OT games differently next year for this reason.
20 USF Bulls
21 Iowa Hawkeyes
22 Virginia Cavaliers
23 Missouri Tigers
24 LSU Tigers
25 Illinois Fighting Illini

Back to poll results >>