Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 19, 2025, 12:15 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Computer model that minimizes the squared error difference between projected spread and actual spread, adjusted for home field advantage (~2.5pts) and with a decay to put more weight in recent games and less weight in games earlier in the season.
Rank | Team | Reason |
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1 |
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2 |
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3 |
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4 |
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5 |
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6 |
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ND moves up, and helps keep Miami from dropping even though they lost to Louisville. With Alabama looking great and helping boost FSU, that also helps keep Miami afloat. |
7 |
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Florida State loss is really holding them back |
8 |
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9 |
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The model gave USC+9, which is about what happened, so USC doesn't drop even with the loss |
10 |
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Model hates Ole Miss so even an 8 point win is seen as an underachievement for Georgia |
11 |
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Michigan win is huge for OU |
12 |
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13 |
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FSU is slowly sinking week after week, but with Alabama surging even a Stanford loss isn't enough to knock them out of the top 25. They're a completely different team since week 1 (derogatory) but even the decay factor included in the model isn't enough to account for what we're seeing. |
14 |
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15 |
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16 |
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17 |
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Model just has no idea how to explain a 4.5 point loss (adjusting for location) to Ohio State. OU win is also huge. Crushing SHSU helps too. |
18 |
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19 |
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Beating Miami is great but it is balanced out by a 5.5 (adjusting for location) loss to UVA. Thinking about treating OT games differently next year for this reason. |
20 |
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21 |
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22 |
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23 |
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24 |
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25 |
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Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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0.09 |
2 |
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1.93 |
3 |
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-0.83 |
4 |
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0.08 |
5 |
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1.57 |
6 |
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0.49 |
7 |
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-0.25 |
8 |
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6.27 |
9 |
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4.34 |
10 |
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-0.76 |
11 |
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0.04 |
12 |
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-6.02 |
13 |
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12.21 |
14 |
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2.86 |
15 |
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-0.21 |
16 |
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-1.14 |
17 |
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1.19 |
18 |
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-1.80 |
19 |
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0.00 |
20 |
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0.00 |
21 |
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3.98 |
22 |
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-0.76 |
23 |
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-1.38 |
24 |
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0.00 |
25 |
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0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
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4.06 |
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1.12 |
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0.67 |
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0.15 |
Total Score: 54.20