shamShaman Ballot for 2025 Week 8
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 13, 2025, 10:04 p.m.
Overall Rationale: My model only uses on-the-field data from this season to make an opponent-adjusted profile for passing and rushing ypg, scoring efficiency, and a percentage of each of these stats allowed on defense. The model uses this to see how likely each team is to beat each other team, and then ranks teams based on their expected number of wins against the other 135 teams in college football. This win percentage is then scaled by each team's actual win percentage to avoid weirdness like 3-9 Nebraska being ranked when I first started this ranking a few years back. The model has been pretty successful the last few years and tends to fall in line with general consensus later in the year, but it does start out a little wonky because even one loss early in the year is a pretty big hit. It also doesn't consider recruiting or past seasons so if a team hasn't shown it on the field yet, they may not be ranked.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
Expected Wins: 130.16 |
| 2 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
Expected Wins: 129.02 |
| 3 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
Expected Wins: 127.16 |
| 4 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
Expected Wins: 124.60 |
| 5 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
Expected Wins: 116.50 |
| 6 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
Expected Wins: 110.67 |
| 7 |
BYU Cougars
|
Expected Wins: 100.56 |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
Expected Wins: 97.82 |
| 9 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
Expected Wins: 95.93 |
| 10 |
Oregon Ducks
|
Expected Wins: 95.78 |
| 11 |
Utah Utes
|
Expected Wins: 95.35 |
| 12 |
Washington Huskies
|
Expected Wins: 93.08 |
| 13 |
USC Trojans
|
Expected Wins: 91.90 |
| 14 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
Expected Wins: 91.22 |
| 15 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
Expected Wins: 90.75 |
| 16 |
LSU Tigers
|
Expected Wins: 90.03 |
| 17 |
Memphis Tigers
|
Expected Wins: 89.94 |
| 18 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
Expected Wins: 87.73 |
| 19 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
Expected Wins: 86.51 |
| 20 |
Missouri Tigers
|
Expected Wins: 85.84 |
| 21 |
USF Bulls
|
Expected Wins: 82.25 |
| 22 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
Expected Wins: 82.09 |
| 23 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
Expected Wins: 81.70 |
| 24 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
Expected Wins: 79.15 |
| 25 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
Expected Wins: 79.14 |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.03 |
| 2 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
0.14 |
| 5 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.65 |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
1.06 |
| 10 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Utah Utes
|
1.26 |
| 12 |
Washington Huskies
|
2.34 |
| 13 |
USC Trojans
|
0.59 |
| 14 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-0.78 |
| 16 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Memphis Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
USF Bulls
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-0.12 |
| 24 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Tennessee Volunteers
|
2.30 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
0.33 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.16 |
Total Score: 9.76