Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 12, 2025, 10:16 a.m.
Overall Rationale: I have made my own ELO-rating system (similar to chess) for college football. Only final scores are considered in the ratings. W-L records do not matter. Margin of victory matters. My code is on github here: https://github.com/kyleaforrester/cfb_elo Losing to a good team might actually improve your rating if you played them close enough. Beating a bad team with a slim margin might drop your rating if your margin of victory isn't good enough. I don't care about the end W-L result or the W-L team records, just how each team performs when compared to what was expected of them.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 |
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440 Elo - Win against Illinois was about what was expected of them. -5 rating drop |
2 |
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329 Elo - Win at Oregon was unexpectedly good and a big boost. 49 rating increase. |
3 |
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320 Elo - Loss to Indiana dropped them a lot of points, but they had so many banked that it doesnt affect their ranking much. -49 rating drop. |
4 |
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301 Elo - Dominant defense vs Oklahoma leads to a strong win and a good rating increase. 29 rating boost. |
5 |
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283 Elo - No change since Florida State game |
6 |
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277 Elo - Win at Auburn was slightly better than expected. 18 rating increase. |
7 |
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275 Elo - Dominant performance vs NC State was already expected. 5 rating increase. |
8 |
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268 Elo - Win at Missouri was a little closer than expected. -3 rating drop. |
9 |
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266 Elo - Win vs Kansas was more dominant than expected. 16 rating increase. |
10 |
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253 Elo - No change since Alabama game |
11 |
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235 Elo - Win vs South Carolina was about as expected. Only 4 rating increase. |
12 |
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217 Elo - Win vs Washington State was way closer than expected. Sloppy win. -36 rating drop. |
13 |
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212 Elo - Win vs Florida better than expected. 15 rating increase. |
14 |
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207 Elo - Win at Wisconsin was really really good. A shutout, which means they got as many points as this game was eligible for. 34 rating increase. |
15 |
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201 Elo - Win vs Michigan a lot better than expected. 26 rating increase. |
16 |
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190 Elo - Win vs Arizona State much better than expected. 49 rating increase. |
17 |
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186 Elo - Win vs Arkansas was way too close. -23 rating drop. |
18 |
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182 Elo - Loss vs Alabama was closer than expected. 3 rating increase. |
19 |
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179 Elo - Loss vs Northwestern was very close and could have gone either way. Unfortunately Northwestern is not a good team so Penn State loses a lot of points for a close game. -50 rating drop. |
20 |
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170 Elo - Ugly loss vs Texas. -34 rating drop. |
21 |
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169 Elo - Win at Arizona was slightly closer than it should have been. -4 rating drop. |
22 |
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160 Elo - Win vs Rutgers better than expected. 15 rating increase. |
23 |
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156 Elo - Loss vs Ohio State was a little closer than expected. 4 rating increase. |
24 |
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154 Elo - No change since Cal game |
25 |
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149 Elo - Loss vs Georgia was not good. Almost unranked now. -16 rating drop. |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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0.03 |
2 |
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0.00 |
3 |
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0.85 |
4 |
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4.92 |
5 |
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-0.09 |
6 |
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0.65 |
7 |
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1.37 |
8 |
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0.00 |
9 |
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-0.80 |
10 |
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1.46 |
11 |
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0.00 |
12 |
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-2.60 |
13 |
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-4.05 |
14 |
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11.16 |
15 |
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0.12 |
16 |
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0.11 |
17 |
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-0.06 |
18 |
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0.00 |
19 |
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6.23 |
20 |
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0.00 |
21 |
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-0.95 |
22 |
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0.00 |
23 |
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0.00 |
24 |
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1.16 |
25 |
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0.25 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
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2.97 |
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0.72 |
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1.02 |
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0.76 |
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0.33 |
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0.24 |
Total Score: 42.90