shamShaman Ballot for 2025 Week 7
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 6, 2025, 11:43 p.m.
Overall Rationale: My computer poll is finally ready for 2025! My model only uses on-the-field data from this season to make an opponent-adjusted profile for passing and rushing ypg, scoring efficiency, and a percentage of each of these stats allowed on defense. The model uses this to see how likely each team is to beat each other team, and then ranks teams based on their expected number of wins against the other 135 teams in college football. This win percentage is then scaled by each team's actual win percentage to avoid weirdness like 3-9 Nebraska being ranked when I first started this ranking a few years back. The model has been pretty successful the last few years and tends to fall in line with general consensus later in the year, but it does start out a little wonky because even one loss early in the year is a pretty big hit. It also doesn't consider recruiting or past seasons so sometimes it will not even rank teams that other people call championship contenders.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
Expected Wins: 129.13 |
| 2 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
Expected Wins: 128.87 |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
Expected Wins: 126.95 |
| 4 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
Expected Wins: 125.30 |
| 5 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
Expected Wins: 125.19 |
| 6 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
Expected Wins: 117.04 |
| 7 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
Expected Wins: 114.74 |
| 8 |
Oregon Ducks
|
Expected Wins: 112.48 |
| 9 |
BYU Cougars
|
Expected Wins: 103.83 |
| 10 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
Expected Wins: 97.84 |
| 11 |
Missouri Tigers
|
Expected Wins: 96.90 |
| 12 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
Expected Wins: 96.80 |
| 13 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
Expected Wins: 94.72 |
| 14 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
Expected Wins: 90.97 |
| 15 |
Memphis Tigers
|
Expected Wins: 90.54 |
| 16 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
Expected Wins: 90.39 |
| 17 |
North Texas Mean Green
|
Expected Wins: 88.65 |
| 18 |
LSU Tigers
|
Expected Wins: 86.81 |
| 19 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
Expected Wins: 85.39 |
| 20 |
USC Trojans
|
Expected Wins: 84.98 |
| 21 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
Expected Wins: 84.39 |
| 22 |
Utah Utes
|
Expected Wins: 83.59 |
| 23 |
Old Dominion Monarchs
|
Expected Wins: 83.03 |
| 24 |
Washington Huskies
|
Expected Wins: 82.67 |
| 25 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
Expected Wins: 80.01 |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.14 |
| 2 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.78 |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
0.50 |
| 5 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Oregon Ducks
|
-0.55 |
| 9 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.86 |
| 10 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.47 |
| 13 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.91 |
| 14 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
0.31 |
| 15 |
Memphis Tigers
|
0.20 |
| 16 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
North Texas Mean Green
|
1.62 |
| 18 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
2.07 |
| 20 |
USC Trojans
|
1.29 |
| 21 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
-0.97 |
| 22 |
Utah Utes
|
0.67 |
| 23 |
Old Dominion Monarchs
|
2.03 |
| 24 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Georgia Bulldogs
|
2.87 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.84 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.25 |
Arizona State Sun Devils
|
0.37 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.33 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
0.17 |
Total Score: 19.21