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BeyondLiesTheWub Ballot for 2025 Week 5

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 22, 2025, 12:27 a.m.

Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). This is the first week it seems pretty reasonable! The only manual replacement I made was swapping Arkansas for Auburn (see notes).

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks no change
2 Penn State Nittany Lions no change
3 Ole Miss Rebels +4. Good but probably not this good, model is giving them a SOS boost I think?
4 Ohio State Buckeyes +2
5 Georgia Bulldogs no change
6 USC Trojans -3. This is much higher than traditional polls, but so far the results have matched up. They may be underrated, we'll see.
7 Miami Hurricanes +3
8 Indiana Hoosiers -4
9 Tennessee Volunteers +2
10 Alabama Crimson Tide -2
11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish +2
12 Missouri Tigers -3
13 Texas Longhorns +1, Arch looked much better but it was Sam Houston. @Florida will be either a huge confidence boost for one team or a sickos game for the ages...
14 Michigan Wolverines -2
15 Texas A&M Aggies no change
16 Texas Tech Red Raiders +3, hate to say it but they looked like a playoff team against Utah. Big 12 favorites at this point imo.
17 Vanderbilt Commodores +3
18 Washington Huskies +11, impressive Apple Cup win. OSU will be a big test.
19 TCU Horned Frogs +5
20 Iowa Hawkeyes +15, what is this offense?? I legit think that 2022 Iowa D/ST with this offense (which is not even great, just decent) makes the playoff.
21 Oklahoma Sooners -2, two things are true: 1) OU is legit. Mateer will be a Heisman candidate, defense is elite. 2) I obviously watched this game with bias but OU should have lost to Auburn. Refs were missing PIs all over the place, and the misleading non-substitution turned out to be the difference in the game. They should be contenders for the SEC title but they do need to make some adjustments.
22 Nebraska Cornhuskers -6, Raiola was good but OL did not hold up vs. Mich. They keep improving, just slowly.
23 Auburn Tigers Swapping Auburn in for Arkansas because 1) Arkansas lost to a CUSA team lol, and 2) I do think Auburn should've beaten Oklahoma with proper officiating. But close only counts in horseshoes.
24 LSU Tigers +4
25 Louisville Cardinals -3

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