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mountain_troop86 Ballot for 2025 Week 5

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 21, 2025, 11:15 p.m.

Overall Rationale: For weeks 4-8, I will use my own eyes with influence on a rankings model I built. I am using this season as my trial year to see if it makes sense by the end and to evaluate the weighting system I came up with. The model replicates a version of how NCAA does their PairWise rankings for tournament seeding. My model creates a total weighted win percentage (weights assigned to home/road/neutral/fcs wins), an RPI rating that does not factor FCS games, incorporating strength of scheduling, and either a H2H score or amount of 32+ wins against FBS opponents. It values winning more than anything which is a category and incorporated into the RPI. Each team (all 136) are compared to each other on 3 categories with a best 2 out of 3, starting with weighted W% and then RPI. If each team is tied after those, it goes to the 3rd category of H2H if possible or 32+ point wins. Hopefully I won't find a weird tie needing an additional tie breaker as we go through the season. If these categories are the same throughout or ends up in a 1-1-tie situation, neither team gets a point. Whichever teams wins the category battle is awarded 1 overall point. The idea is that the #1 will have 135 total points, #2 is 134 and so on. Because it is so early in the season, many teams are tied (neither gets points) so I do not want to fully rely on it but it really helps in the 15-25 area. I will throw in where the model placed these teams in my reasons to show why I am not fully relying on it and I also think the human element is still very important in rankings. There might be some pretty big fluctuations in ranks from last week for me but now I have data.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes Model rank: 23
2 Georgia Bulldogs Model rank: 9
3 Oregon Ducks Model rank: 4
4 Miami Hurricanes Florida was desperate but I did expect more. Model rank: 17
5 Texas Tech Red Raiders Watched them in-person with my own eyes. The popular story is Utah was overrated/just not good. The story should be Tech is that good. Maybe I'm biased but Tech deserves to be recognized. Model rank: 28
6 Oklahoma Sooners Model rank: 24
7 LSU Tigers Model rank: 13
8 Penn State Nittany Lions Need's to play someone. Model rank: 25
9 Florida State Seminoles Model rank: 8
10 Indiana Hoosiers That...was...impressive. Model rank: 2
11 Texas A&M Aggies Big test in Aggieland this weekend. Model rank: 27
12 Ole Miss Rebels Crushed a solid G5 team. Model rank: 1
13 Iowa State Cyclones Model rank: 12
14 Missouri Tigers Model rank: 20
15 Tennessee Volunteers Model rank: 37
16 Texas Longhorns Arch flexing on Sam Houston players isn't tough. Model rank also places them behind this group of SEC teams. Model rank: 42
17 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Model rank: 10
18 USC Trojans Model rank: 3
19 Memphis Tigers It was kind of lucky but still huge. Model rank: 16
20 BYU Cougars As shown below, has a high model rank but that offense doesn't seem to scare anyone and hasn't played anyone really. Model rank: 6
21 TCU Horned Frogs Model rank: 26
22 Vanderbilt Commodores Model rank: 31
23 Michigan Wolverines Model rank: 34
24 Houston Cougars Team looks solid. Model rank: 11
25 Mississippi State Bulldogs Model rank: 19

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