BeyondLiesTheWub Ballot for 2025 Week 4
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 15, 2025, 11:32 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Model is pretty unhinged and volatile this early since there isn't much data - it will definitely overreact to big blowouts early on.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
+1, this matches my eye test |
| 2 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
+2 |
| 3 |
USC Trojans
|
+2, I have no idea why the model is ranking them so high. I will start to manually adjust this in the next couple weeks |
| 4 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
+4 |
| 5 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
+1 |
| 6 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
-3 |
| 7 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-6, they keep escaping upsets against decent teams so SOS is carrying them in the model right now, but I think the lack of defense last week knocked them down |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
-1, looked at lot better against Wiscy but I still think this is too high for now |
| 9 |
Missouri Tigers
|
+3, their RB looks like the real deal |
| 10 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
+1 |
| 11 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
-2, soooo close against UGA |
| 12 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
+28 (!), lots of early season volatility here but this could be about right if Underwood continues to improve |
| 13 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
+1, I think they did outplay A&M but just choked the extra point at the end... |
| 14 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-4, can we please have 2024 Arch back |
| 15 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
+5, as a Texas fan I hate to say it but this may be a very good team |
| 16 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
+2, Michigan should be on upset watch here |
| 17 |
Utah Utes
|
+2 |
| 18 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
+4, as a Texas fan I hate to say this even more but they are very underrated by the model. This is a very dangerous team |
| 19 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
-4 |
| 20 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
+10, fun Vandy is back! |
| 21 |
Arkansas Razorbacks
|
-8 |
| 22 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
-5 |
| 23 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
-2 |
| 24 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
-8 |
| 25 |
BYU Cougars
|
-2 |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.27 |
| 2 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.07 |
| 3 |
USC Trojans
|
2.28 |
| 4 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
1.93 |
| 5 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
-0.51 |
| 7 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.45 |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.70 |
| 9 |
Missouri Tigers
|
1.20 |
| 10 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-0.45 |
| 11 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.78 |
| 12 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
2.96 |
| 13 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
7.99 |
| 14 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
-0.23 |
| 16 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
2.39 |
| 17 |
Utah Utes
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
-1.50 |
| 19 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
Arkansas Razorbacks
|
4.20 |
| 22 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
1.07 |
| 23 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
-1.47 |
| 24 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
LSU Tigers
|
4.46 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
2.45 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
1.71 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
1.22 |
Auburn Tigers
|
0.43 |
Total Score: 41.72