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Noelthemexican Ballot for 2025 Week 4

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 15, 2025, 9:35 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Every year I've done some variation of the Colley Matrix (introducing bias to the famously "bias-free computer poll"), and this year is no different. Last time the teams were biased by FPI. This was probably good as far as accuracy goes, if you consider accuracy "closer to human polls." But in practice it was pretty much the Colley matrix with G5 teams down a lot of spots and P5 (especially SEC) teams up a lot of spots. One of the weeks Florida was ranked at like 25 at 7-5 or 5-7 or whatever happened in the swamp last year. So this year, I'm going to bias the teams by PFF rating. Specifically their "Overall" rating. It is now week 4, and I really don't know what this will look like mid-season. By this time last season, my old adjustment was outputting polls <20 unusual score. But that's probably expected with FPI as an input. I think there just needs to be more games played and the ratings should start to look more normal. If I lower the PFF weighting, it'll just look more like the Colley matrix, which never looks very good this early anyways.

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