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Player_1_has_Joined Ballot for 2025 Week 4

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 15, 2025, 8:56 a.m.

Overall Rationale: My computer ballot begins the season as a strict power rating and then over the course of the season weights a school's resume more and more in an attempt to try and predict or replicate how the CFP might make their selections. In the first few weeks of the season, my computer model had the most disagreement with the AP poll than ever which I was a bit surprised by. The difficulty in evaluating a roster in the transfer portal era may be a contributing factor to this. It was right about a few things though so far. It correctly believed that Clemson was overrated in the preseason and I believe so far it has been ahead of the curve on a few schools notably Missouri and USC (we will see if this holds up). Florida State is definitely the big omission so far. Their resume ranking is the best in my model with their win over Alabama but having only played two games, there hasn't been enough data to phase out their power rating that uses some data from last year's disaster season. Even though they play a relatively weak opponent in Kent State this week, a win will see them likely take a big step forward in my model simply because it will phase out more of the preseason expectations. If FSU is truly a top 10 team, I would expect my model wouldn't fully recognize that until around week 6. This has happened with a few teams in the past where the preseason expectations were not very lofty at all and it took a while to catch up. BYU last year was one and the year before that Washington was slow for my model to recognize how strong a team they were.

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