Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Sept. 14, 2025, 10:24 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Week 4 notes: So many teams are still insignificantly different from each other that this is really more like four tiers and I just have to put one team before another. Methodology: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = Team A cannot be ranked over Team B that has 2+ fewer losses (ex: 9-3 LSU can be ranked over 10-2 Missouri, but 9-3 LSU cannot be ranked over 11-1 Tulane even if LSU beat Tulane heads up, rankings have LSU over Tulane, and/or I think LSU is better than Tulane) unless Team B is giving a X loss allowance to Team A due to significantly fewer P4 games played. Loss allowances come into play when: P5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 games, 10-8=2, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); P5 teams play 6 fewer P5 games than a G5 team (11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 teams, 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 teams, 8-2=6, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); G5 teams play 10 fewer P5 teams than a P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 10-0=0, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty); or G5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another G5 team (ex: 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 2-0=2, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty). If the game differential exceeds more than 2/6/10/2 in those scenarios, add another loss allowance for each additional P5 game played difference in that scenario.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
NEW. Would be the #1 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #8 Iowa State/#9 Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
NEW. Would be the #2 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #7 Georgia/#10 Alabama in the Orange Bowl |
| 3 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
NEW. Would be the #3 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #6 Florida State/#11 Tennessee in the Cotton Bowl |
| 4 |
LSU Tigers
|
NEW. Would be the #4 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #5 Miami/#12 Tulane in the Sugar Bowl |
| 5 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
NEW. Would be the #5 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #12 Tulane in the first round |
| 6 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
NEW. Would be the #6 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #11 Tennessee in the first round |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
NEW. Would be the #7 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #10 Alabama in the first round |
| 8 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
NEW. Would be the #8 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #9 Oklahoma in the first round |
| 9 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
NEW. Would be the #9 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Iowa State in the first round |
| 10 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
NEW. Would be the #10 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #7 Georgia in the first round |
| 11 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
NEW. Would be the #11 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #6 Florida State in the first round |
| 12 |
Texas Longhorns
|
NEW. Rule of thumb: don't get mad at individual polls before week 10 - they don't matter early in the season |
| 13 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
NEW |
| 14 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
NEW |
| 15 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
NEW |
| 16 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
NEW |
| 17 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
NEW |
| 18 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
NEW |
| 19 |
Utah Utes
|
NEW |
| 20 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
NEW |
| 21 |
Auburn Tigers
|
NEW |
| 22 |
USC Trojans
|
NEW |
| 23 |
Missouri Tigers
|
NEW |
| 24 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
NEW |
| 25 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
NEW. Tulane would be the #12 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #5 Miami in the first round |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.27 |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.23 |
| 9 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.29 |
| 11 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.78 |
| 12 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 13 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
2.64 |
| 14 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-0.15 |
| 19 |
Utah Utes
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
0.87 |
| 21 |
Auburn Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
USC Trojans
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Missouri Tigers
|
-0.06 |
| 24 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
-0.40 |
| 25 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.00 |