Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 14, 2025, 1:03 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Oregon Ducks	1.765 [10.7-1.3]
2	Ole Miss Rebels	1.738 [10.1-1.9]
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	1.716 [10.5-1.5]
4	Georgia Bulldogs	1.665 [9.5-2.5]
5	Alabama Crimson Tide	1.510 [8.5-3.5]
6	Oklahoma Sooners	1.389 [7.9-4.1]
7	Tennessee Volunteers	1.377 [8.8-3.2]
8	Missouri Tigers	1.365 [8.6-3.4]
9	Indiana Hoosiers	1.362 [9.8-2.2]
10	LSU Tigers	1.334 [8.2-3.8]
11	Texas Longhorns	1.319 [8.1-3.9]
12	Penn State Nittany Lions	1.309 [9.2-2.8]
13	Texas A&M Aggies	1.302 [8.5-3.5]
14	Vanderbilt Commodores	1.239 [8.1-3.9]
15	USC Trojans	1.188 [9.1-2.9]
16	Miami Hurricanes	1.188 [9.8-2.2]
17	Auburn Tigers	1.131 [7.2-4.8]
18	Arkansas Razorbacks	1.048 [6.3-5.7]
19	Michigan Wolverines	1.022 [8.1-3.9]
20	BYU Cougars	1.003 [9.0-3.0]
21	Illinois Fighting Illini	0.993 [8.3-3.7]
22	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.967 [8.4-3.6]
23	Nebraska Cornhuskers	0.957 [8.8-3.2]
24	Utah Utes	0.937 [9.2-2.8]
25	Florida State Seminoles	0.930 [9.0-3.0]

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Oregon Ducks	0.27
2	Ole Miss Rebels	1.40
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
4	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
5	Alabama Crimson Tide	2.31
6	Oklahoma Sooners	0.27
7	Tennessee Volunteers	1.56
8	Missouri Tigers	1.39
9	Indiana Hoosiers	0.92
10	LSU Tigers	-0.22
11	Texas Longhorns	0.08
12	Penn State Nittany Lions	-0.43
13	Texas A&M Aggies	0.00
14	Vanderbilt Commodores	0.00
15	USC Trojans	0.22
16	Miami Hurricanes	-1.88
17	Auburn Tigers	0.00
18	Arkansas Razorbacks	7.20
19	Michigan Wolverines	0.68
20	BYU Cougars	0.31
21	Illinois Fighting Illini	-1.07
22	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	1.54
23	Nebraska Cornhuskers	0.00
24	Utah Utes	-0.86
25	Florida State Seminoles	-2.25

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Iowa State Cyclones	1.71
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	1.22
Texas Tech Red Raiders	0.83

Total Score: 28.63