BeyondLiesTheWub Ballot for 2025 Week 3
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 7, 2025, 9:48 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Model is pretty unhinged and volatile this early since there isn't much data - it will definitely overreact to big blowouts early on.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
+2 and definitely should not be #1 after barely beating Kentucky. If this happens again I'll manually adjust. |
| 2 |
Oregon Ducks
|
+3, eye test #1 so far in my opinion |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
+10, blowout volatility |
| 4 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
-3 |
| 5 |
USC Trojans
|
-1. Overrated because they've only played in blowouts against cupcakes. I should probably add some kind of strength of schedule adjustment to my ranking system to clean up early weeks. |
| 6 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-4, probably deserved this actually. Not great against Austin Peay |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
+31?? Not a top 10 team so far lol |
| 8 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
+8 |
| 9 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
no change |
| 10 |
Texas Longhorns
|
+4, way too high having watched the game as a Texas fan. We forced 4 turnovers and only came up with 38 points, and SJSU could've easily scored 20 if they made their FGs and didn't get a near TD called back by SEC-friendly replay. Arch might be mid. |
| 11 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
+1 |
| 12 |
Missouri Tigers
|
+5 |
| 13 |
Arkansas Razorbacks
|
+9 |
| 14 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-6 |
| 15 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
+8 |
| 16 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
-10 |
| 17 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
-7 |
| 18 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
+54, blowout volatility though I think they are a top 25 candidate right now for sure. |
| 19 |
Utah Utes
|
+1 |
| 20 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
-2 |
| 21 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
+14 |
| 22 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
+7, good win against Michigan and I think Michigan has improved significantly |
| 23 |
BYU Cougars
|
-8 |
| 24 |
Auburn Tigers
|
+18 |
| 25 |
Florida Gators
|
-18, oooooooof |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
2.06 |
| 2 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
USC Trojans
|
4.43 |
| 6 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
3.60 |
| 8 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
1.41 |
| 9 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.45 |
| 10 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-0.37 |
| 12 |
Missouri Tigers
|
1.16 |
| 13 |
Arkansas Razorbacks
|
11.80 |
| 14 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
0.48 |
| 16 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
0.90 |
| 17 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
2.37 |
| 18 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
2.95 |
| 19 |
Utah Utes
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
-1.18 |
| 22 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
-1.19 |
| 23 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
Auburn Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Florida Gators
|
0.08 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
LSU Tigers
|
4.78 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
1.97 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
1.90 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
1.84 |
USF Bulls
|
0.81 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.67 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
0.13 |
Total Score: 46.53