NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2025 Week 3
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 7, 2025, 8:01 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
1.946 (10.9-1.1) |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
1.881 (10.8-1.2) |
| 3 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1.627 (10.2-1.8) |
| 4 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.460 (9.7-2.3) |
| 5 |
Texas Longhorns
|
1.385 (9.0-3.0) |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
1.385 (9.1-2.9) |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.357 (8.4-3.6) |
| 8 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1.289 (8.3-3.7) |
| 9 |
USC Trojans
|
1.287 (9.2-2.8) |
| 10 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
1.240 (9.3-2.7) |
| 11 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.173 (9.3-2.7) |
| 12 |
Missouri Tigers
|
1.172 (8.5-3.5) |
| 13 |
LSU Tigers
|
1.105 (7.8-4.2) |
| 14 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
1.089 (6.9-5.1) |
| 15 |
Auburn Tigers
|
1.009 (7.6-4.4) |
| 16 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
1.005 (7.2-4.8) |
| 17 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
0.994 (8.6-3.4) |
| 18 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.986 (8.6-3.4) |
| 19 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
0.964 (8.0-4.0) |
| 20 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
0.952 (9.1-2.9) |
| 21 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.944 (7.9-4.1) |
| 22 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.924 (7.0-5.0) |
| 23 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.917 (6.9-5.1) |
| 24 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.902 (9.0-3.0) |
| 25 |
Arkansas Razorbacks
|
0.889 (6.1-5.9) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.31 |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1.70 |
| 4 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.56 |
| 5 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.52 |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
3.60 |
| 8 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
USC Trojans
|
3.30 |
| 10 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
1.03 |
| 11 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
Missouri Tigers
|
1.16 |
| 13 |
LSU Tigers
|
-1.30 |
| 14 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Auburn Tigers
|
0.70 |
| 16 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
3.50 |
| 18 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-2.06 |
| 19 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
-0.76 |
| 20 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
-0.87 |
| 21 |
Washington Huskies
|
3.82 |
| 22 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.99 |
| 24 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
-1.51 |
| 25 |
Arkansas Razorbacks
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
USF Bulls
|
0.81 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.67 |
Utah Utes
|
0.75 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
0.44 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
0.13 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
0.03 |
Total Score: 31.53