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BeyondLiesTheWub Ballot for 2025 Week 2

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 2, 2025, 7:55 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Model is pretty unhinged and volatile this early since there isn't much data - it will definitely overreact to big blowouts early on. Changes are since my preseason poll (based solely on ELO data so also a little unhinged).

Rank Team Reason
1 Penn State Nittany Lions +3
2 Georgia Bulldogs no change
3 Ole Miss Rebels +3
4 USC Trojans +15
5 Oregon Ducks no change
6 TCU Horned Frogs +42. Definitely overreacting here - it thinks UNC is better than it should be (coaching change, Belichick might be a fraud, etc). So probably rewarding TCU more than it should for blowing them out.
7 Florida Gators +18. Wild how Napier has turned it around, let's see if it sticks.
8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5
9 Tennessee Volunteers +1
10 Louisville Cardinals +3
11 Michigan Wolverines no change
12 Miami Hurricanes no change
13 Ohio State Buckeyes -12. Interesting that it's penalizing OSU a lot more than Texas - to be fair, as bad as Arch played this game shouldn't have been as close as it was. In Columbus a top 10 OSU team should win by more than 7.
14 Texas Longhorns +1. Oooooof Arch was bad. I am not feeling confident about the offense this season.
15 BYU Cougars +27
16 Indiana Hoosiers -7. Model doesn't buy the Indiana hype (thinks they should've beaten Old Dominion by more) and neither do I
17 Missouri Tigers +36
18 Texas A&M Aggies -2
19 SMU Mustangs +5
20 Utah Utes +57
21 Washington Huskies +14
22 Arkansas Razorbacks +42
23 Texas Tech Red Raiders +13
24 Memphis Tigers +23
25 Arizona State Sun Devils -8. I am not sure why they are being penalized here. Even without Skattebo they should compete for the B12 title this year.

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