Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 2, 2025, 7:04 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Wins and losses are weighted by the difference in "rank" between the winner/loser and the median team. Scaled such that beating strong teams matters more than beating weak teams, and losing to bad teams is worse than losing to strong teams. Winning is weighted slightly more than losing, and by the preceding two years' performance. Results are scaled by offensive and defensive points per drive efficiencies, and strength of schedule determined by opponents score normalized throughout the season. Preseason rankings are weighted by returning production, talent composite, and previous season(s)' success. Early season can be rather volatile due to lack of data. Next five out: Florida, Georgia Tech, NC State, Kansas, Pitt.
Rank | Team | Reason |
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1 |
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(+5) Defense looks fast, opportunistic, and aggressive. Offense did just enough to hang on to the win against Texas. Fantastic start to the season for the Buckeyes! |
2 |
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(+0) Smashed a lowly Nevada team. Hard to take anything meaningful from this one, aside from a good win. |
3 |
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(+0) Dominated a Marshall team that is resetting from last year. Is this Georgia defense back to what we have come to expect under Kirby? |
4 |
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(-3) Only dropped due to playing FCS Montana State, who is a solid program, and other teams moving up. |
5 |
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(+6) Is the LSU defense really this good? Time will tell, but smothered what many thought would be an excellent Clemson team. |
6 |
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(+10) Wow, Miami's lines looked great! If they can avoid any catastrophic Cristobal-ings this year, the Hurricanes might run away with the ACC. |
7 |
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(+5) Great win for the Gamecocks of Virginia Tech! Expected more from LaNorris Sellers, but the season is still young. |
8 |
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(+12) Absolutely smoked Georgia State. Huge jump for the Rebels, but could be another case of Kiffin teams beating up weaker opponents and struggling against equal peers. |
9 |
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(+24) Obliterated Missouri State, who is technically an FBS program so the computer thinks this is a meaningful win. We shall see if the Trojans are worthy of this jump in ranking. |
10 |
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(-5) The Arch Manning era started with a dirted ball and didn't get much better. Texas settled in and Arch made some top-tier throws and head-scratching mistakes. This is a talented Texas team, but their ceiling will be determined by how Arch develops through the season. |
11 |
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(-4) Notre Dame played very well, but Miami was just better along the lines. If Love can stop trying to hurdle defenders for one moment, they might get a few extra yards that could prove critical. |
12 |
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(+5) Aguilar looked excellent in the Heupel system and the D-line looks nasty against a decent Syracuse team. Could be a special season for the Vols. |
13 |
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(+8) Outside the very first drive, TCU erased any hope for the Tarheels. Great start for the Horned Frogs! |
14 |
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(-1) Up and down for much of the game, but good win for A&M against UTSA. |
15 |
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(-6) Struggled more than you would like to see against an FCS team. Big12 play could be rough. |
16 |
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(-2) Vaporized Portland State, but hard to take much away from beating up on a poor Big Sky team. |
17 |
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(-7) Only dropped in ranking due to more convincing wins by teams ranked lower. The cluster of teams in the #13-#18 range are pretty much interchangeable at the moment. |
18 |
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(+4) Crushed an FCS opponent. The Big12 is going to be fun! |
19 |
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(-1) Struggled with feisty ODU team. Mendoza looked good despite a slow start for the Hoosiers. |
20 |
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(+3) A good win for the new era Wolverines, but still closer than you would have expected against New Mexico. |
21 |
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(-6) Not really sure why Iowa State dropped so much in these rankings... A good win over Kansas State in Dublin and the cruised over an FCS opponent. Iowa State is looking good. |
22 |
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(+3) Crushed their in-state FCS opponent. |
23 |
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(-19) One game into the season and a loss is a big deal to the rankings. Perhaps too volatile though as the Tigers still looked good in their loss to LSU. |
24 |
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(-16) Wooo baby, that was bad. Is FSU that good? Not the start you would expect for the Tide. Only ranked still due to preseason weights. |
25 |
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(-1) Big win over an FCS team. I expect big things from the Cardinals this year. |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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0.00 |
2 |
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0.00 |
3 |
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0.00 |
4 |
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0.03 |
5 |
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0.00 |
6 |
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0.00 |
7 |
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0.37 |
8 |
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0.73 |
9 |
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3.44 |
10 |
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0.00 |
11 |
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0.00 |
12 |
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0.00 |
13 |
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1.01 |
14 |
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0.72 |
15 |
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0.00 |
16 |
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1.09 |
17 |
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0.00 |
18 |
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0.36 |
19 |
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0.00 |
20 |
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0.00 |
21 |
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-0.40 |
22 |
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-0.46 |
23 |
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-0.56 |
24 |
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0.00 |
25 |
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0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
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0.90 |
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0.83 |
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0.31 |
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0.28 |
Total Score: 11.49