NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2025 Week 2
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 1, 2025, 10:58 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
1.822 (10.9-1.1) |
| 2 |
Oregon Ducks
|
1.565 (10.3-1.7) |
| 3 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1.546 (10.2-1.8) |
| 4 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1.415 (9.4-2.6) |
| 5 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
1.356 (9.6-2.4) |
| 6 |
Texas Longhorns
|
1.278 (9.2-2.8) |
| 7 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.241 (9.7-2.3) |
| 8 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.151 (9.5-2.5) |
| 9 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
1.137 (9.4-2.6) |
| 10 |
USC Trojans
|
1.120 (9.2-2.8) |
| 11 |
LSU Tigers
|
1.102 (8.5-3.5) |
| 12 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
1.058 (8.2-3.8) |
| 13 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
1.049 (9.1-2.9) |
| 14 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.960 (9.0-3.0) |
| 15 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.944 (8.6-3.4) |
| 16 |
Florida Gators
|
0.926 (6.6-5.4) |
| 17 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.896 (9.1-2.9) |
| 18 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.878 (8.2-3.8) |
| 19 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
0.841 (8.6-3.4) |
| 20 |
Auburn Tigers
|
0.837 (7.9-4.1) |
| 21 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.825 (6.6-5.4) |
| 22 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.818 (7.0-5.0) |
| 23 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.801 (8.4-3.6) |
| 24 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.786 (6.2-5.8) |
| 25 |
Utah Utes
|
0.743 (8.5-3.5) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.55 |
| 3 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1.58 |
| 4 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.26 |
| 7 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.83 |
| 8 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.30 |
| 9 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-0.07 |
| 10 |
USC Trojans
|
3.15 |
| 11 |
LSU Tigers
|
-0.65 |
| 12 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
0.00 |
| 13 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.82 |
| 14 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Missouri Tigers
|
3.25 |
| 16 |
Florida Gators
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.84 |
| 18 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Auburn Tigers
|
0.22 |
| 21 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.27 |
| 22 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Utah Utes
|
-0.13 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Florida State Seminoles
|
0.90 |
Arizona State Sun Devils
|
1.15 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
1.18 |
Clemson Tigers
|
1.06 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.77 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
0.16 |
Total Score: 18.13