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redleg86 Ballot for 2024 Week 16 & Bowls

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Dec. 10, 2024, 7:30 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Step 1 - for each team, add up the wins of all the teams they beat, and the losses of all the teams to whom they lost. Then subtract the loss score from the win score and divide by the total number of games. This gives the team's raw score, which is then normalized (the best score becomes 1, the worst score becomes 0, and all other scores are in between). Step 2 - for each team, add up the normalized score of all the teams they beat, and 1 minus the normalized score of all the teams to whom they lost. Then subtract the loss score from the win score and divide by the total number of games again. This score is normalized again (which is needed if we want to do more iterations). I did find that while you can repeat step 2 over and over, it wasn't significantly changing anything in my rankings. Note: FCS wins count as half of the normal value, and FCS losses count as double the normal value. So if you beat a 5 win FCS team, you get 2.5 points in step 1, and if you lose to a 2 loss FCS team, you lose 4 points in step 1. In step 2, FCS wins are 0 and FCS losses are -1. Playoff Note: My poll thinks the playoff seeding should have been (1) Oregon (2) Georgia (3) Boise State (4) Arizona State (5) Notre Dame (6) Texas (7) Ohio State (8) Penn State (9) Indiana (10) SMU (11) Miami (12) Clemson - so I arrived at the same top 4, got 5-8 the same (rd 1 hosts) but in a different order, and only left out Tennessee in favor of Miami.

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks wins [Idaho: 0, Boise State: 0.894, Oregon State: 0.409, UCLA: 0.527, Michigan State: 0.456, Ohio State: 0.885, Purdue: 0.189, Illinois: 0.699, Michigan: 0.696, Maryland: 0.419, Wisconsin: 0.456, Washington: 0.561, Penn State: 0.81] UNDEFEATED
2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish wins [Texas A&M: 0.689, Purdue: 0.189, Miami (OH): 0.56, Louisville: 0.723, Stanford: 0.321, Georgia Tech: 0.611, Navy: 0.687, Florida State: 0.287, Virginia: 0.466, Army: 0.828, USC: 0.527] losses [Northern Illinois: -0.48]
3 Texas Longhorns wins [Colorado State: 0.557, Michigan: 0.696, UTSA: 0.449, UL Monroe: 0.409, Mississippi State: 0.284, Oklahoma: 0.578, Vanderbilt: 0.52, Florida: 0.605, Arkansas: 0.483, Kentucky: 0.402, Texas A&M: 0.689] losses [Georgia: -0.112, Georgia: -0.112]
4 Ohio State Buckeyes wins [Akron: 0.338, Western Michigan: 0.412, Marshall: 0.729, Michigan State: 0.456, Iowa: 0.622, Nebraska: 0.497, Penn State: 0.81, Purdue: 0.189, Northwestern: 0.361, Indiana: 0.791] losses [Oregon: 0, Michigan: -0.304]
5 Georgia Bulldogs wins [Clemson: 0.738, Tennessee Tech: 0, Kentucky: 0.402, Auburn: 0.426, Mississippi State: 0.284, Texas: 0.853, Florida: 0.605, Tennessee: 0.733, Massachusetts: 0.186, Georgia Tech: 0.611, Texas: 0.853] losses [Alabama: -0.172, Ole Miss: -0.301]
6 Boise State Broncos wins [Georgia Southern: 0.652, Portland State: 0, Washington State: 0.584, Utah State: 0.294, Hawai'i: 0.345, UNLV: 0.707, San Diego State: 0.193, Nevada: 0.267, San José State: 0.503, Wyoming: 0.304, Oregon State: 0.409, UNLV: 0.707] losses [Oregon: 0]
7 Penn State Nittany Lions wins [West Virginia: 0.48, Bowling Green: 0.486, Kent State: 0, Illinois: 0.699, UCLA: 0.527, USC: 0.527, Wisconsin: 0.456, Washington: 0.561, Purdue: 0.189, Minnesota: 0.578, Maryland: 0.419] losses [Ohio State: -0.115, Oregon: 0]
8 Indiana Hoosiers wins [Florida International: 0.23, Western Illinois: 0, UCLA: 0.527, Charlotte: 0.426, Maryland: 0.419, Northwestern: 0.361, Nebraska: 0.497, Washington: 0.561, Michigan State: 0.456, Michigan: 0.696, Purdue: 0.189] losses [Ohio State: -0.115]
9 Arizona State Sun Devils wins [Wyoming: 0.304, Mississippi State: 0.284, Texas State: 0.53, Kansas: 0.537, Utah: 0.422, Oklahoma State: 0.328, UCF: 0.405, Kansas State: 0.679, BYU: 0.764, Arizona: 0.372, Iowa State: 0.751] losses [Texas Tech: -0.294, Cincinnati: -0.517]
10 SMU Mustangs wins [Nevada: 0.267, Houston Christian: 0, TCU: 0.561, Florida State: 0.287, Louisville: 0.723, Stanford: 0.321, Duke: 0.696, Pittsburgh: 0.561, Boston College: 0.601, Virginia: 0.466, California: 0.456] losses [BYU: -0.236, Clemson: -0.262]
11 Miami Hurricanes wins [Florida: 0.605, Florida A&M: 0, Ball State: 0.257, South Florida: 0.432, Virginia Tech: 0.574, California: 0.456, Louisville: 0.723, Florida State: 0.287, Duke: 0.696, Wake Forest: 0.368] losses [Georgia Tech: -0.389, Syracuse: -0.209] <<NOTE: this is the only team my poll thinks should be in the playoff that didn't get in>>
12 Alabama Crimson Tide wins [Western Kentucky: 0.585, South Florida: 0.432, Wisconsin: 0.456, Georgia: 0.888, South Carolina: 0.774, Missouri: 0.693, LSU: 0.682, Mercer: 0, Auburn: 0.426] losses [Vanderbilt: -0.48, Tennessee: -0.267, Oklahoma: -0.422]
13 BYU Cougars wins [Southern Illinois: 0, SMU: 0.819, Wyoming: 0.304, Kansas State: 0.679, Baylor: 0.669, Arizona: 0.372, Oklahoma State: 0.328, UCF: 0.405, Utah: 0.422, Houston: 0.372] losses [Kansas: -0.463, Arizona State: -0.215]
14 Army West Point wins [Lehigh: 0, Florida Atlantic: 0.189, Rice: 0.368, Temple: 0.264, Tulsa: 0.149, UAB: 0.27, East Carolina: 0.527, Air Force: 0.382, North Texas: 0.47, UTSA: 0.449, Tulane: 0.694] losses [Notre Dame: -0.108]
15 South Carolina Gamecocks wins [Old Dominion: 0.466, Kentucky: 0.402, Akron: 0.338, Oklahoma: 0.578, Texas A&M: 0.689, Vanderbilt: 0.52, Missouri: 0.693, Wofford: 0, Clemson: 0.738] losses [LSU: -0.318, Ole Miss: -0.301, Alabama: -0.172]
16 Clemson Tigers wins [App State: 0.484, NC State: 0.517, Stanford: 0.321, Florida State: 0.287, Wake Forest: 0.368, Virginia: 0.466, Virginia Tech: 0.574, Pittsburgh: 0.561, The Citadel: 0, SMU: 0.819] losses [Georgia: -0.112, Louisville: -0.277, South Carolina: -0.226]
17 Iowa State Cyclones wins [North Dakota: 0, Iowa: 0.622, Arkansas State: 0.486, Houston: 0.372, Baylor: 0.669, West Virginia: 0.48, UCF: 0.405, Cincinnati: 0.483, Utah: 0.422, Kansas State: 0.679] losses [Texas Tech: -0.294, Kansas: -0.463, Arizona State: -0.215]
18 Syracuse Orange wins [Ohio: 0.673, Georgia Tech: 0.611, Holy Cross: 0, UNLV: 0.707, NC State: 0.517, Virginia Tech: 0.574, California: 0.456, UConn: 0.517, Miami: 0.787] losses [Stanford: -0.679, Pittsburgh: -0.439, Boston College: -0.399]
19 Tennessee Volunteers wins [Chattanooga: 0, NC State: 0.517, Kent State: 0, Oklahoma: 0.578, Florida: 0.605, Alabama: 0.828, Kentucky: 0.402, Mississippi State: 0.284, UTEP: 0.203, Vanderbilt: 0.52] losses [Arkansas: -0.517, Georgia: -0.112] <<NOTE: this is the only team in the playoff that my poll excluded from the top 12>>
20 Ole Miss Rebels wins [Furman: 0, Middle Tennessee: 0.233, Wake Forest: 0.368, Georgia Southern: 0.652, South Carolina: 0.774, Oklahoma: 0.578, Arkansas: 0.483, Georgia: 0.888, Mississippi State: 0.284] losses [Kentucky: -0.598, LSU: -0.318, Florida: -0.395]
21 Missouri Tigers wins [Murray State: 0, Buffalo: 0.574, Boston College: 0.601, Vanderbilt: 0.52, Massachusetts: 0.186, Auburn: 0.426, Oklahoma: 0.578, Mississippi State: 0.284, Arkansas: 0.483] losses [Texas A&M: -0.311, Alabama: -0.172, South Carolina: -0.226]
22 Illinois Fighting Illini wins [Eastern Illinois: 0, Kansas: 0.537, Central Michigan: 0.301, Nebraska: 0.497, Purdue: 0.189, Michigan: 0.696, Michigan State: 0.456, Rutgers: 0.507, Northwestern: 0.361] losses [Penn State: -0.19, Oregon: 0, Minnesota: -0.422]
23 Louisville Cardinals wins [Austin Peay: 0, Jacksonville State: 0.604, Georgia Tech: 0.611, Virginia: 0.466, Boston College: 0.601, Clemson: 0.738, Pittsburgh: 0.561, Kentucky: 0.402] losses [Notre Dame: -0.108, SMU: -0.181, Miami: -0.213, Stanford: -0.679]
24 Marshall Thundering Herd wins [Stony Brook: 0, Western Michigan: 0.412, App State: 0.484, Georgia State: 0.287, UL Monroe: 0.409, Southern Miss: 0.098, Coastal Carolina: 0.47, Old Dominion: 0.466, James Madison: 0.547, Louisiana: 0.663] losses [Virginia Tech: -0.426, Ohio State: -0.115, Georgia Southern: -0.348]
25 UNLV Rebels wins [Houston: 0.372, Utah Tech: 0, Kansas: 0.537, Fresno State: 0.436, Utah State: 0.294, Oregon State: 0.409, Hawai'i: 0.345, San Diego State: 0.193, San José State: 0.503, Nevada: 0.267] losses [Syracuse: -0.209, Boise State: -0.106, Boise State: -0.106]

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