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hurricaneatx Ballot for 2024 Week 16 & Bowls

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Dec. 9, 2024, 8:13 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Blend of power/resume-thinking, but gets more resume-based later in the season. I don't really care if a team moves drastically week-to-week. I am a fan of the Texas Longhorns. Head-to-head matchups matter when comparing similar records, but lose significance the earlier they are and the farther separated the teams are. [Teams in the ranking suburbs: Texas A&M, Duke, Kansas State, Tulane, LSU] [Teams in the ranking exurbs: Louisville, Texas Tech, Florida, Baylor, Georgia Tech, Marshall, Louisiana-Lafayette]

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks (13-0) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 - The sole undefeated team following the end of the regular season, Oregon stands alone at #1. No team in the country has looked truly dominant week-to-week, but while Oregon has certainly had their close shaves throughout the season they've managed to take care of business in each game, including against strong competition at points in the season. That's something no other team can say. A Big 10 title victory over Penn State adds another convincing feather in the Ducks' cap. Quality wins: Boise State, Ohio State, Illinois, Penn State
2 Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 - Questions were certainly demanded of the Bulldogs after escaping their own stadium with 8 overtime periods against Georgia Tech. However, they were able to notch a second victory over Texas to add onto their impressive strength of record. Without Carson Beck, the Bulldogs tread uncertain waters in the playoff. Quality wins: Clemson, @Texas [2x], Florida, Tennessee, Georgia Tech
3 Texas Longhorns (11-2) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 - While Texas' schedule has been more favorable than other SEC teams in contention, the Longhorns managed to avoid the pitfall of losing to the conference's mid- to lower-tier squads, which had been a thorn in the conference's playoff bid. The heart of this team is its defense, which ranks in totality as among the best in the nation. I had Texas slotted slightly ahead of Penn State given their marginally better strength of record and strength of schedule at the end of the regular season, and a second loss to the same team doesn't really change the formulation there. Still, Texas shot themselves in the foot way too many times to come away with a win against the Bulldogs despite starting off with strong statistical advantages. Quality wins: Florida, @Texas A&M
4 Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 - Penn State has shown elements of its usual fare under James Franklin's head coaching tenure, but have also had a few closer games against lesser competition than one would typically expect of the Nittany Lions, such as against Minnesota recently and Bowling Green earlier in the year. My quality win listing for them isn't too robust, but the Nittany Lions have avoided bad losses. They came up short in the Big 10 title game, but all in all demonstrated that they certainly belong in the playoff. A round 1 contest against a surging SMU squad will certainly be a good test for the Nittany Lions. Quality wins: Illinois
5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 - After losing to Northern Illinois in Week 2, Notre Dame had zero margin for error. In my estimation, any additional loss would probably kick them out of the top 12 and somewhere in the Alabama/Ole Miss fuzz zone. The Fighting Irish didn't exactly have a great schedule and were picked early to go undefeated after clearing their greatest test on paper (Texas A&M) anyways, but they do have at least some wins against decent competition among otherwise dominant victories to bolster their resume and allow them to be ranked fairly highly and be a lock for the playoffs despite bearing the worst loss (86th FPI!) of any team in this region of the rankings. That loss does hold some sway, so I have the Fighting Irish still ranked behind some of the other 11 win teams teams. Quality wins: @Texas A&M, Louisville, Army
6 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 - Ohio State was demonstrably better than Indiana, and followed that up with an absolutely dismal performance at home against Michigan that has ignited Ryan Day's coaching seat among the Buckeye faithful. Despite losing to a very milquetoast Michigan squad, I couldn't drop Ohio State very far - as much as I'd like to - given that they do have wins at Penn State and Indiana on their resume. The extra loss made me consider whether I want to drop Ohio State below Indiana, but the strong and very recent head-to-head over the Hoosiers gives them a backsplash. Quality wins: Marshall, @Penn State, Indiana
7 Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 - Have you Googled Cignetti? Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, their schedule has been the target of much criticism in the strength department. Fortunately, I think they've definitely done enough to rightfully deserve a playoff spot. Their resume reads off much like a Penn State of various yesteryears, blasting away much of the competition and then being competitive/losing against strong rosters. Quality wins: N/A
8 Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 - Tennessee was fairly close to the blob of SEC teams outside the playoff at-large space, but were helped by their win against Alabama and the loss to Arkansas being back in early October, even though their non-conference schedule looks absolutely dreadful now. Quality wins: Florida, Alabama
9 Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 - Arizona State is peaking at the right time, and suddenly, the team that was picked to finish last in the Big 12 is now the conference's sole representative in the playoff. Blowing out Iowa State in the title game was a good way to punch a ticket to a first round bye. An injured Sam Leavitt probably contributed to the Sun Devils' loss against Cincinnati, so their record may be better than it looks. Quality wins: @Kansas State, BYU, Iowa State
10 Boise State Broncos (12-1) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 - Boise State managed to avoid the random loss to a middling opponent that has so often eliminated them from contention in years past, and is now the only 12-win team in the FBS. Beating UNLV twice was a good demonstration that Boise State is king of the G5 this year, and it isn't particularly close. The Broncos look to showcase Ashton Jeanty on a national stage beginning with their first game against either SMU or Penn State. Quality wins: @UNLV [2x]
11 SMU Mustangs (11-2) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 - After losing a close match to BYU early in the year, well before either team was anywhere near playoff contention, SMU rattled off 9 consecutive victories. It was unfortunate that the Mustangs just barely missed out on winning the ACC on the first year in, but that isn't going to keep them out of the playoff. Quality wins: @Louisville, @Duke
12 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) - Alabama has a very good slate of quality wins, and did well to win against Auburn to keep their playoff hopes alive. Problem is, losing squarely to Vanderbilt and getting absolutely crushed by Oklahoma were terrible looks, and that kept them out of the playoffs. For the first time in quite some time, Alabama will be bowling in a somewhat less noteworthy position. Quality wins: Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri, @LSU
13 South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) - South Carolina made a last minute bid for the playoff, but with three losses it wasn't enough to sneak into the pool of at-large teams. Still, they can hang their hat on winning the Palmetto Bowl and putting together a pretty good season. I have the Gamecocks ranked behind Alabama given the head-to-head loss earlier in the year and the comparable strength of record. Quality wins: Texas A&M, @Missouri, @Clemson
14 Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) - Having Ole Miss at #14 doesn't make me too happy, considering their losses have been collectively bad, including their recent loss against (an albeit resurgent) Florida. That said, they did defeat Georgia and were the only team to put a tight lid on South Carolina, so maybe having them be a mid-grade team in the #10s isn't so bad after all. Quality wins: @South Carolina, Georgia
15 Clemson Tigers (10-3) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 - Dabo Swinney has his doubters. But he also has his track record, and unexpectedly, Clemson is now champions of the ACC. Clemson's resume during the regular season was rather poor, and up until the conference title game their strongest wins were Virginia Tech and an escape at Pittsburgh. Clemson continues to be ranked in the mid-teens because of that, though they can continue building #respect in their round 1 playoff match at Texas. Quality wins: SMU
16 BYU Cougars (10-2) - It's easy to imagine what could have been for the Cougars, who lost two very much winnable games and could have been undefeated and virtually a lock for the playoff. I had BYU ranked behind Miami last week, but after looking over their resumes again, figured that BYU's slate of strong wins was better, as was their strength of record. Quality wins: @SMU, Kansas State, @Baylor
17 Miami Hurricanes (10-2) - It's an often used trope, but it's not hard to imagine Miami being a 7-5 team and unranked right now. Cam Ward has been excellent at the helm, but November was not kind. The Hurricanes now have 2 losses in their last 3 games, knocking them out of the ACC title race and playoff contention. Miami downtrended pretty hard as of late, and their close wins have not looked very convincing, so their placement is a little farther back. Quality wins: @Florida, @Louisville, Duke
18 Iowa State Cyclones (10-3) - Although things looked pretty bleak after losing in convincing fashion to Kansas, Iowa State still had an opportunity to make it into the playoffs, including a strong win in Farmaggedon and a solid 10-win regular season. Iowa State could have kept things competitive against Arizona State, but fell apart and probably mailed it in after giving up 3 turnovers. Quality wins: Baylor, Kansas State
19 Army West Point (11-1) - The quality of Army's competition in the regular season was definitely lackluster, with the blowout loss against Notre Dame accentuating that. However, defeating Tulane (who I have ranked in the top 30) as underdogs notched a quality win for the Black Knights. This year's rendition of the Army-Navy game might be one of the more higher quality matchups in the series. Quality wins: Tulane
20 Colorado Buffaloes (9-3) - Last year's Colorado team had much more eyes on it, but this year's Colorado team has done far better. Eviscerating Oklahoma State in a battle of new versus old guard is a great way to end their regular season. Colorado managed to avoid additional confrontations with the upper tier of the Big 12, so ultimately their top wins aren't too shiny and keep the Buffaloes from rising too much in the rankings. The Buffaloes aren't too different on the resume than Missouri and Illinois, but I wins against decent Baylor and Texas Tech teams give them a slight leg up. Quality wins: Baylor, @Texas Tech
21 Syracuse Orange (9-3) - The citrus fruits of upstate New York have some questionable losses (possibly the most of any team I have ranked), but I did have them ranked in the final week of the regular season account of their earlier win over UNLV and they demonstrated that they deserve to get a shout in the top 25 with a great win over fan unfavorite Miami. Quality wins: Georgia Tech, @UNLV, Miami
22 UNLV Rebels (10-3) - UNLV had an opportunity to avenge their earlier loss to Boise State and sneak into the playoffs as the fifth highest ranked conference champion. UNLV used to be a good shout for "why can't this team be any better given resources", so it was great seeing Barry Odom lead the Rebels to a 10-win season and be within striking distance of the playoff. Unfortunately, UNLV couldn't cash in their mulligan chance against the Broncos. I had the Rebels just outside of the top 25 last week, but Syracuse rising higher in my rankings reels the Rebels into the top 25. A quality loss for a MWC team? Say it isn't so! Quality wins: N/A
23 Missouri Tigers (9-3) - Missouri is kind of here by default. They have a good strength of record that keeps them ahead of other teams that could be in this position, but their resume doesn't really stand out anywhere. It's a bit disappointing for a team that entered the season with playoff aspirations, but that's how the cookie crumbles sometimes. Quality wins: N/A
24 Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3) - Illinois is a solid team. Their loss to a pesky Minnesota team that has caused some other conference teams mild troubles does sting, but being 5th in this year's B1G is a decent showing. I had debated ranking them ahead of Missouri, but placed them behind given their slightly worse strength of record. Quality wins: N/A
25 Memphis Tigers (10-2) - Memphis has always been a strong non-P4 team and have hung around in my ranking shortlist for a while, so I'm happy to have them finally in the top 25 after a good win at Tulane. Tigers fans aren't probably too chuffed to have dropped games to Navy and UTSA earlier in the year, though. Quality wins: @Tulane

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