Back to poll results >>

quantum_jedi Ballot for 2024 Week 16 & Bowls

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Dec. 9, 2024, 11:24 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Wins and losses are weighted by the difference in "rank" between the winner/loser and the median team. Scaled such that beating strong teams matters more than beating weak teams, and losing to bad teams is worse than losing to strong teams. Winning is weighted slightly more than losing. Results are scaled by offensive and defensive points per drive efficiencies, and strength of schedule determined by cumulative opponents score. Preseason rankings are weighted by returning production, talent composite, and previous season success. Reward conference championship game winners, but reduced punishment for losers. Next five out: Memphis, LSU, Michigan, Kansas State, Louisville.

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks (+0) B1G Champions and an undefeated 13-0! What an incredible season for the Ducks. They appear to have drawn a rather difficult path in the CFP bracket, but the fighting Dan Lanning's have not shied away from any challenge this year. Oregon has definitely earned the first round bye and a trip to the Rose Bowl against the winner of Ohio State/Tennessee.
2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+1) Idle during Championship week. The Irish get to host Indiana is what should be an electric atmosphere in South Bend.
3 Texas Longhorns (-1) Another frustrating loss for Texas to a very good Georgia team. Poor execution on all sides of the ball for Texas (to be honest, both teams struggled with bad drops and miscues). Despite the Georgia bug, the Longhorns have earned themselves a first round home game against a tricky Clemson team.
4 Penn State Nittany Lions (+0) Yet another one-score loss to a top-10 team for the Nittany Lions. Penn State hung around but could never fully close the gap against Oregon. Up next Penn State will get to host SMU in Happy Valley. Expect the Penn State defense to cause a lot of havoc for SMU's dynamic offense.
5 Georgia Bulldogs (+2) The Georgia bulldogs are SEC Champions! Sloppy, mistake filled game against Texas but Georgia persevered. Hopefully Beck's wrist injury isn't too bad and can heal up after the first round bye. Up next is the Sugar Bowl against the winner of Notre Dame/Indiana.
6 Ohio State Buckeyes (-1) Idle. Hopefully the Buckeyes are able to figure out, and correct, what went wrong against Michigan. They get Tennessee coming to the Shoe in the first round of the playoff.
7 Indiana Hoosiers (-1) Idle. Indiana is in officially in the playoffs!! They stay in-state and will travel to South Bend to play Notre Dame in the first round. Could be an incredible game if the Hoosiers can solve the excellent Irish defense.
8 Arizona State Sun Devils (+3) Holy crap, ASU are Big12 Champions and are going to the playoff! Skattebo was unstoppable and ASU crushed Iowa State in all phases. Projected to finish 3-9 and last in the Big12, Kenny Dillingham has guided this team to a top-10 ranking and a first round bye in the playoff. What an absolutely amazing season for the Sun Devils. They await the winner of Texas/Clemson in the Peach Bowl.
9 SMU Mustangs (-1) Heartbreaking loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship game, but the committee did the right thing and did not punish the Mustangs for a close loss in a highly competitive conference championship game. SMU now travels to Penn State for their well deserved first round playoff game. They will need to minimize the mistakes they made against Clemson if they want to advance to the next round.
10 Boise State Broncos (+4) Boise State is in the playoffs!! Shutdown a solid UNLV team to win the Mountain West Championship game and secured a first round bye. Now they await the winner of SMU/Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl.
11 Miami Hurricanes (-2) Miami is on the outside of the bubble looking in. That loss against Syracuse changed the entire complexion of the playoffs and will linger as a massive "What if?". The Hurricanes get to continue their season with a match-up against Iowa State in the Pop Tarts Bowl.
12 Clemson Tigers (+6) What a roller coaster of a season for the Clemson Tigers, but they are your ACC Champions and earned an automatic bid to the playoffs! Jumped out to a big lead against SMU and managed to hold on. Clemson will now travel to Austin for their first round game against Texas.
13 Alabama Crimson Tide (-3) The first team out of this year's playoff. The committee clearly rewarded Alabama for their massive win over Georgia and difficult schedule by making them the highest ranked 3-loss team, but they couldn't overlook two absolutely head-scratching losses to mediocre Vanderbilt and Oklahoma teams. In a purely brand name, ratings driven match-up, the Tide will get an unranked, 7-5 Michigan team in the Reliaquest Bowl.
14 Tennessee Volunteers (-2) Tennessee is in the playoffs! Thankfully for the Volunteers the Committee does not use my model because it does not like Tennessee very much due to their weak strength of schedule (#68 by my calculations) and unconvincing results. They went 10-2 and only played three(!) games against top-50 teams (split results against Alabama and Georgia, which is good), but their next best win is probably at 6-6 Oklahoma (#53 in my rankings) or 7-5 Florida (#45) and they have a bad loss against 6-6 Arkansas (#65). The Volunteers have looked very solid on defense, but the offense has only looked potent against bad teams. They've only scored over 30 points against #61 NC State, #66 Vanderbilt, #115 Mississippi State, #129 UTEP, #134 Kent State, and 7-5 FCS Chattanooga... Tennessee has all the pieces to make a deep playoff run, but they need to play their best football if they are going to beat Ohio State in the Shoe.
15 Iowa State Cyclones (-2) Iowa State started strong against ASU, but couldn't get things going on offense in the second half and couldn't stop Skattebo. While a Big12 Championship still remains elusive, the Cyclones should be incredibly proud of their first ever 10-win season! Up next is Miami in the Pop Tarts bowl.
16 Ole Miss Rebels (-1) Ole Miss will get Duke in the Gator Bowl. Tough season for Ole Miss, but dropping three games against Kentucky (bad), Florida, and LSU (not that bad), and an exceptionally weak non-conference (#59 Georgia Southern was probably the toughest non-con game) are what kept Ole Miss out of the playoff.
17 BYU Cougars (-1) Even though BYU will not compete for a National Championship they have still had a great season! That loss to Kansas is what is keeping them out of the playoff. They will get Colorado in the Alamo Bowl, which should be a great game barring opt-outs.
18 South Carolina Gamecocks (-1) The Gamecocks closed the season on an awesome 6-0 run with a great win over Clemson, but couldn't overcome three early season losses, albeit all to good teams (LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama). The future looks bright for South Carolina and they have an exciting match-up against Illinois in the Citrus Bowl.
19 Army West Point (+5) Army rolled over a very good Tulane squad en route to an American Conference Championship! The Black Knights are 11-1 with Navy up next, and then a somewhat disrespectful placement in the Independence Bowl against a fiery Marshall.
20 Duke Blue Devils (-1) Duke can get to a 10-win season with a win over Ole Miss in the Gator Bowl. Manny Diaz has a done a great job revitalizing this program.
21 Illinois Fighting Illini (-1) A solid season for the Illini and they have an intriguing match-up against South Carolina in the Citrus Bowl.
22 Colorado Buffaloes (-1) Like a number of teams in the Big12, that baffling loss to a surging Kansas team limited what could have been a truly special season. Regardless, the Buffaloes have been electric this year and can keep it rolling against BYU in the Alamo Bowl.
23 Syracuse Orange (-1) Syracuse beating Miami likely is the reason Miami and Alabama are out while Clemson, and maybe SMU, are in the playoff. Fran Brown has done a tremendous job with this 'Cuse team and they get one more opportunity for a 10-win season against Wazzu in the Holiday Bowl.
24 Missouri Tigers (-1) Mizzou had a number of ups and downs this year, but a great season to build on for the future. The Tigers will get a weird Iowa team in the Music City Bowl.
25 UNLV Rebels (+1) UNLV sneaks into these rankings and deservedly so. While they couldn't overcome Boise in the Mountain West Championship game and that overtime loss to Syracuse stings, they have still had a great season. The Rebels will get a struggling Cal team in the Gronk Bowl.

Back to poll results >>