Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Dec. 8, 2024, 8:04 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Oregon Ducks	21.285 (13-0)
2	Boise State Broncos	11.251 (12-1)
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	2.456 (10-2)
4	Penn State Nittany Lions	2.294 (11-2)
5	Indiana Hoosiers	2.185 (11-1)
6	Georgia Bulldogs	2.024 (11-2)
7	Texas Longhorns	1.884 (11-2)
8	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	1.733 (11-1)
9	Illinois Fighting Illini	1.538 (9-3)
10	Tennessee Volunteers	1.522 (10-2)
11	SMU Mustangs	1.511 (11-2)
12	Alabama Crimson Tide	1.452 (9-3)
13	South Carolina Gamecocks	1.404 (9-3)
14	BYU Cougars	1.376 (10-2)
15	Michigan Wolverines	1.372 (7-5)
16	Miami Hurricanes	1.347 (10-2)
17	Clemson Tigers	1.338 (10-3)
18	Arizona State Sun Devils	1.318 (11-2)
19	Ole Miss Rebels	1.214 (9-3)
20	LSU Tigers	1.175 (8-4)
21	Texas A&M Aggies	1.124 (8-4)
22	Iowa State Cyclones	1.121 (10-3)
23	Missouri Tigers	1.113 (9-3)
24	Louisville Cardinals	1.108 (8-4)
25	UNLV Rebels	1.077 (10-3)

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Oregon Ducks	0.00
2	Boise State Broncos	0.83
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.65
4	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.01
5	Indiana Hoosiers	0.69
6	Georgia Bulldogs	-1.16
7	Texas Longhorns	-0.19
8	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-0.89
9	Illinois Fighting Illini	4.27
10	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
11	SMU Mustangs	0.00
12	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
13	South Carolina Gamecocks	0.00
14	BYU Cougars	0.14
15	Michigan Wolverines	10.13
16	Miami Hurricanes	0.00
17	Clemson Tigers	-0.39
18	Arizona State Sun Devils	-1.89
19	Ole Miss Rebels	-0.25
20	LSU Tigers	3.12
21	Texas A&M Aggies	1.65
22	Iowa State Cyclones	-0.48
23	Missouri Tigers	0.00
24	Louisville Cardinals	0.00
25	UNLV Rebels	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Army West Point	1.04
Colorado Buffaloes	0.88
Syracuse Orange	0.61
Memphis Tigers	0.14

Total Score: 29.40