Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Dec. 8, 2024, 12:26 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Week 16 notes: Deservedness keeping highly-rated 3+-loss teams such as Clemson and Iowa State behind 1- loss Boise State and Alabama and Ole Miss behind 1-loss Army; 3-loss teams such as Clemson and Iowa State can be ranked over Army due to loss allowance. General notes: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = Team A cannot be ranked over Team B that has 2+ fewer losses (ex: 9-3 LSU can be ranked over 10-2 Missouri, but 9-3 LSU cannot be ranked over 11-1 Tulane even if LSU beat Tulane heads up, rankings have LSU over Tulane, and/or I think LSU is better than Tulane) unless Team B is giving a X loss allowance to Team A due to significantly fewer P4 games played. Loss allowances come into play when: P5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 games, 10-8=2, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); P5 teams play 6 fewer P5 games than a G5 team (11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 teams, 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 teams, 8-2=6, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); G5 teams play 10 fewer P5 teams than a P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 10-0=0, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty); or G5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another G5 team (ex: 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 2-0=2, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty). If the game differential exceeds more than 2/6/10/2 in those scenarios, add another loss allowance for each additional P5 game played difference in that scenario.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Oregon Ducks | +0. #1 playoff seed in this scenario playing the winner of #8 Texas/#9 Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl |
2 | Georgia Bulldogs | +2. #2 playoff seed in this scenario playing the winner of #7 Indiana/#10 SMU in the Sugar Bowl |
3 | Ohio State Buckeyes | -1. #5 playoff seed in this scenario hosting #12 Clemson in the first round |
4 | Penn State Nittany Lions | -1. #6 playoff seed in this scenario hosting #11 Tennessee in the first round |
5 | Indiana Hoosiers | +0. #7 playoff seed in this scenario hosting #10 SMU in the first round |
6 | Texas Longhorns | +0. #8 playoff seed in this scenario hosting #9 Notre Dame in the first round |
7 | Arizona State Sun Devils | +3. #3 playoff seed in this scenario playing the winner of #6 Penn State/#11 Tennessee in the Fiesta Bowl |
8 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -1. #9 playoff seed in this scenario playing at #8 Tennessee in the first round |
9 | SMU Mustangs | -1. #10 playoff seed in this scenario playing at #7 Indiana in the first round |
10 | Tennessee Volunteers | -1. #11 playoff seed in this scenario playing at #6 Penn State in the first round |
11 | Miami Hurricanes | +1. Due to Iowa State having 3 losses and no loss allowance over Boise State |
12 | BYU Cougars | +1. Due to Iowa State having 3 losses and no loss allowance over Boise State |
13 | Boise State Broncos | +1. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Boise State such as Clemson from being ranked ahead of Boise State. #4 playoff seed in this scenario playing the winner of #5 Ohio State/#12 Clemson in the Peach Bowl |
14 | Clemson Tigers | +1. Loss allowances over Army, Memphis, and Liberty. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Boise State such as Clemson from being ranked ahead of Boise State. #12 playoff seed in this scenario playing at #5 Ohio State in the first round |
15 | Iowa State Cyclones | -4. Loss allowances over Army, Memphis, and Liberty. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Boise State such as Iowa State from being ranked ahead of Boise State |
16 | Illinois Fighting Illini | +0. Loss allowances over Army, Memphis, and Liberty. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Boise State such as Illinois from being ranked ahead of Boise State |
17 | Colorado Buffaloes | +0. Loss allowances over Army, Memphis, and Liberty. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Boise State such as Colorado from being ranked ahead of Boise State |
18 | TCU Horned Frogs | +1. Loss allowances over Army, Memphis, and Liberty. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Boise State such as TCU from being ranked ahead of Boise State |
19 | UNLV Rebels | -1. Loss allowances over Army, Memphis, and Liberty |
20 | Army West Point | +0. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Alabama from being ranked ahead of Army |
21 | Alabama Crimson Tide | +0. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Alabama from being ranked ahead of Army |
22 | Florida Gators | +0. Loss allowances over Memphis, Liberty, Missouri, Syracuse, Duke, Washington State, Marshall, Ohio, Louisiana, Navy, and Sam Houston. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Florida from being ranked ahead of Army |
23 | Ole Miss Rebels | +0. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Ole Miss from being ranked ahead of Army |
24 | South Carolina Gamecocks | +0. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as South Carolina from being ranked ahead of Army |
25 | Louisville Cardinals | +0. Loss allowances over Memphis and Liberty. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Louisville from being ranked ahead of Army. |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Oregon Ducks | 0.00 |
2 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 |
3 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.65 |
4 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.01 |
5 | Indiana Hoosiers | 0.69 |
6 | Texas Longhorns | 0.00 |
7 | Arizona State Sun Devils | 0.12 |
8 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -0.89 |
9 | SMU Mustangs | 0.00 |
10 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.00 |
11 | Miami Hurricanes | 0.60 |
12 | BYU Cougars | 0.82 |
13 | Boise State Broncos | -0.67 |
14 | Clemson Tigers | 0.00 |
15 | Iowa State Cyclones | 0.46 |
16 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 1.50 |
17 | Colorado Buffaloes | 1.07 |
18 | TCU Horned Frogs | 7.22 |
19 | UNLV Rebels | 0.83 |
20 | Army West Point | 0.00 |
21 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -1.19 |
22 | Florida Gators | 3.08 |
23 | Ole Miss Rebels | -1.44 |
24 | South Carolina Gamecocks | -2.52 |
25 | Louisville Cardinals | 0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Syracuse Orange | 0.61 |
Missouri Tigers | 0.29 |
Memphis Tigers | 0.14 |
Total Score: 24.81