Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 26, 2024, 8:26 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Probabilistic, predictive rating based only on teams' results so far this season, using opponent-adjusted points scored and allowed. This is NOT an achievement/resume rating, it's meant to predict the margins of future games. As wins and losses are not the key input, there will be teams ranked ahead of opponents they've beaten and teams with a better record than them. A close loss against an elite team is better than a close win against a bad team. Net rating is how far above/below the average Div 1 team (FBS and FCS combined) the team is. Offense and defense ratings are how many points above/below average they are projected to score or allow in a future game. This rating system is good at predicting expected margins for future games, with a relatively low absolute error.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | Net Rating: 29.8; O: 14.08, O Rank: 2; D: -15.72, D Rank: 1 |
2 | Texas Longhorns | Net Rating: 28.16; O: 12.99, O Rank: 7; D: -15.17, D Rank: 2 |
3 | Alabama Crimson Tide | Net Rating: 27.27; O: 14.08, O Rank: 2; D: -13.19, D Rank: 6 |
4 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | Net Rating: 27.27; O: 13.13, O Rank: 5; D: -14.15, D Rank: 4 |
5 | Tennessee Volunteers | Net Rating: 25.5; O: 10.94, O Rank: 17; D: -14.56, D Rank: 3 |
6 | Georgia Bulldogs | Net Rating: 25.23; O: 13.13, O Rank: 5; D: -12.1, D Rank: 9 |
7 | Ole Miss Rebels | Net Rating: 24.95; O: 12.17, O Rank: 10; D: -12.78, D Rank: 7 |
8 | Indiana Hoosiers | Net Rating: 24.61; O: 13.88, O Rank: 4; D: -10.74, D Rank: 14 |
9 | Penn State Nittany Lions | Net Rating: 23.86; O: 10.33, O Rank: 23; D: -13.53, D Rank: 5 |
10 | Oregon Ducks | Net Rating: 23.86; O: 11.15, O Rank: 16; D: -12.72, D Rank: 8 |
11 | Miami Hurricanes | Net Rating: 23.25; O: 16.19, O Rank: 1; D: -7.06, D Rank: 49 |
12 | South Carolina Gamecocks | Net Rating: 23.25; O: 12.1, O Rank: 11; D: -11.15, D Rank: 12 |
13 | Louisville Cardinals | Net Rating: 21.55; O: 12.65, O Rank: 9; D: -8.9, D Rank: 36 |
14 | SMU Mustangs | Net Rating: 21.48; O: 12.99, O Rank: 7; D: -8.49, D Rank: 39 |
15 | Tulane Green Wave | Net Rating: 21.14; O: 11.42, O Rank: 13; D: -9.72, D Rank: 24 |
16 | Kansas State Wildcats | Net Rating: 20.32; O: 9.99, O Rank: 26; D: -10.33, D Rank: 17 |
17 | Iowa State Cyclones | Net Rating: 20.25; O: 8.83, O Rank: 34; D: -11.42, D Rank: 10 |
18 | Iowa Hawkeyes | Net Rating: 20.18; O: 9.85, O Rank: 27; D: -10.33, D Rank: 17 |
19 | BYU Cougars | Net Rating: 19.98; O: 9.38, O Rank: 29; D: -10.6, D Rank: 15 |
20 | Texas A&M Aggies | Net Rating: 19.84; O: 10.53, O Rank: 20; D: -9.31, D Rank: 31 |
21 | Kansas Jayhawks | Net Rating: 19.64; O: 10.53, O Rank: 20; D: -9.1, D Rank: 32 |
22 | Colorado Buffaloes | Net Rating: 19.5; O: 10.6, O Rank: 19; D: -8.9, D Rank: 36 |
23 | Clemson Tigers | Net Rating: 18.95; O: 11.42, O Rank: 13; D: -7.53, D Rank: 44 |
24 | USC Trojans | Net Rating: 18.68; O: 9.31, O Rank: 30; D: -9.38, D Rank: 29 |
25 | Arizona State Sun Devils | Net Rating: 18.55; O: 8.49, O Rank: 37; D: -10.06, D Rank: 23 |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.26 |
2 | Texas Longhorns | 0.52 |
3 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 2.29 |
4 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.00 |
5 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.80 |
6 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 |
7 | Ole Miss Rebels | 1.63 |
8 | Indiana Hoosiers | 0.00 |
9 | Penn State Nittany Lions | -1.40 |
10 | Oregon Ducks | -8.07 |
11 | Miami Hurricanes | -0.82 |
12 | South Carolina Gamecocks | 0.71 |
13 | Louisville Cardinals | 7.76 |
14 | SMU Mustangs | -1.94 |
15 | Tulane Green Wave | 0.17 |
16 | Kansas State Wildcats | 1.65 |
17 | Iowa State Cyclones | 0.00 |
18 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 7.05 |
19 | BYU Cougars | 0.00 |
20 | Texas A&M Aggies | 0.00 |
21 | Kansas Jayhawks | 4.10 |
22 | Colorado Buffaloes | 0.00 |
23 | Clemson Tigers | -2.93 |
24 | USC Trojans | 1.19 |
25 | Arizona State Sun Devils | -2.62 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Boise State Broncos | 3.82 |
Army West Point | 0.34 |
UNLV Rebels | 0.63 |
Illinois Fighting Illini | 0.46 |
Total Score: 51.15