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Player_1_has_Joined Ballot for 2024 Week 14

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 24, 2024, 10:49 p.m.

Overall Rationale: My computer ballot stats as a strict power ranking. Over the course of the season it weights resume more and more. The purpose of this ballot is to attempt to predict how the CFP committee may make their selections. Last week, I was thrilled with the overall results having the lowest uniqueness score of any computer ballot. This week... I don't know if that is going to be the case. Ohio State's win jumped them over Oregon despite the head to head result. The algorithm I came up with does not factor head to head results in the rankings. The best way I can hopefully explain this is that for my resume calculations I have two different calculations and then I combine them. The first is I've attempted to reverse engineer ESPN's SOR metric (How does your record compare to how the average top 25 team would be expected to do against your schedule? Oregon was #1 and Ohio State was #3 in this metric). The second calculation I stole from Bill Connelly's SP+ resume ranking and I worked it into my own (How have you performed from a scoring perspective versus your opponent compared to a top 25 team with a 7 point deduction for every loss. Oregon was #4 and Ohio State was #1 in this metric). When combining the two Ohio State's resume just edges out Oregon because Ohio State has dominated their opponents more than Oregon has. Ohio State was already power rated above Oregon so they take the top spot this week. Why would Ohio State be power rated above Oregon when Oregon won the head to head? There is much more math that goes into that as well but if we were to take Oregon versus Ohio State in a vacuum, Oregon beat them at home by 1 point. If this is our only data point and we use a 2-3 point home field advantage, we would assume that on a neutral field Ohio State is the better team. Now you may disagree with that assessment and the game is not being looked at purely in a vacuum but I feel like that is at least a fair way to present why mine or any model may power rate a team higher than another despite head to head results. Is it the best way to do calculate things? I don't know. It has been pretty good for the most part for me this year. No computer model is ever 100% accurate so while common sense would say to keep Oregon over Ohio State the algorithm says other wise. That being said, I was heavily considering ignoring this result and submitting this as a hybrid ballot but I wanted to stay consistent.

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