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MADBuc49 Ballot for 2024 Week 14

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Nov. 25, 2024, 1:18 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Week 14 notes: chaos after Indiana, Army, and a bunch of 2-loss teams lose. Deservedness keeping highly-rated 2-loss teams such as Alabama and Ole Miss behind 0-loss Army; 2-loss teams such as Georgia and UNLV can be ranked over Army due to loss allowance. General notes: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = Team A cannot be ranked over Team B that has 2+ fewer losses (ex: 9-3 LSU can be ranked over 10-2 Missouri, but 9-3 LSU cannot be ranked over 11-1 Tulane even if LSU beat Tulane heads up, rankings have LSU over Tulane, and/or I think LSU is better than Tulane) unless Team B is giving a X loss allowance to Team A due to significantly fewer P4 games played. Loss allowances come into play when: P5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 games, 10-8=2, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); P5 teams play 6 fewer P5 games than a G5 team (11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 teams, 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 teams, 8-2=6, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); G5 teams play 10 fewer P5 teams than a P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 10-0=0, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty); or G5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another G5 team (ex: 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 2-0=2, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty). If the game differential exceeds more than 2/6/10/2 in those scenarios, add another loss allowance for each additional P5 game played difference in that scenario.

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks +0. Would be the #1 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #8 Texas/#9 Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl
2 Ohio State Buckeyes +0. Would be the #5 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #12 Boise State in the first round
3 Penn State Nittany Lions +0. Would be the #6 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #11 Tennessee in the first round
4 Georgia Bulldogs +1. Would be the #2 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #7 Indiana/#10 Miami in the Sugar Bowl
5 Indiana Hoosiers -1. Would be the #7 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #10 Miami in the first round
6 Texas Longhorns +0. Would be the #8 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #9 Notre Dame in the first round
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish +0. Would be the #9 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Texas in the first round
8 SMU Mustangs +1. Would be the #3 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #6 Penn State/#11 Tennessee in the Orange Bowl
9 Miami Hurricanes +1. Would be the #10 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #7 Indiana in the first round
10 Tennessee Volunteers +8. Would be the #11 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #6 Penn State in the first round. Sharp rise due to Army’s loss
11 Clemson Tigers +0
12 Arizona State Sun Devils +1. Would be the #4 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #5 Ohio State/#12 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl
13 BYU Cougars -5. One of the rare times I will rank Team A behind Team B when Team B beat Team A and Deservedness is not holding Team A behind Team B
14 Iowa State Cyclones +0
15 Boise State Broncos +0. Would be the #12 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Ohio State in the first round. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Boise State such as Alabama from being ranked ahead of Boise State
16 Illinois Fighting Illini +6. Loss allowance over Army. Sharp rise due to Army’s loss
17 Kansas State Wildcats +7. Loss allowance over Army. Sharp rise due to Army’s loss
18 Colorado Buffaloes -6. Loss allowance over Army
19 UNLV Rebels -3. Drop due to Army’s loss opening up more loss allowances to other teams. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Boise State such as Alabama from being ranked ahead of Boise State
20 TCU Horned Frogs NEW. Loss allowance over Army, Tulane, Louisiana, Memphis, and Liberty. Sharp rise due to Army’s loss. By far the craziest ranking of the year and definitely one of my craziest unpredicted jumps in the history of Deservedness - they are my 5th-highest rated 4-loss team, yet are both rated higher than and have a loss allowance over Army
21 Tulane Green Wave NEW. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Alabama from being ranked ahead of Army
22 Army West Point -5. Lowest rated 1-loss team. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Alabama from being ranked ahead of Army
23 Alabama Crimson Tide -4. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Alabama from being ranked ahead of Army
24 LSU Tigers NEW. Loss allowance over Louisiana, Memphis, and Liberty
25 Ole Miss Rebels -5. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Ole Miss from being ranked ahead of Army. Next 5: South Carolina, Louisville, Iowa, Texas A&M, Missouri

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