Ballot Type: Human
Submitted: Nov. 24, 2024, 12:39 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Early season rankings are based largely on expected results versus other ranked teams, and as the season goes leans more heavily on actual resume. By the end of the season, rankings are based entirely on resume. I lean heavily into head to head results and results against common opponents. I also sort teams into 6 tiers based on championship/playoff likelihood. Tier 1: Championship Frontrunners, near lock to make playoffs Tier 2: Championship Contenders with excellent chance of making playoffs Tier 3: Decent possibility to make playoffs, unlikely to compete for championship Tier 4: Outside playoff shot Tier 5: Unlikely to make playoffs but not quite eliminated Tier 6: No shot at playoffs
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Oregon Ducks | Tier 1. Win over #2 team is still the best win of any team. Only undefeated. Easy #1 |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | Tier 1. Two top ten victories and only loss is to #1 on the road by 1 point. About as good of a resume as you can have with one loss. |
3 | Texas Longhorns | Tier 2. Lack of ranked wins is a bit concerning but still, excellent team. |
4 | Miami Hurricanes | Tier 3. Great offense and mediocre defense. Hard to say exactly how good they are. #4 for now. |
5 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | Tier 3. Some solid wins, but the worst loss of a top team. Unsure how good they are as well. |
6 | Penn State Nittany Lions | Tier 3. |
7 | Georgia Bulldogs | Tier 3. Best two loss team by far. Wins over #3, #8, and #13. Losses are both to ranked teams. But they've struggled with weaker opponents too. |
8 | Tennessee Volunteers | Tier 3. H2H loss keeps them behind UGA for sure. But a solid resume overall. |
9 | SMU Mustangs | Tier 3. |
10 | Indiana Hoosiers | Tier 3. Beat soundly on road by #2 but still deserves credit. I think they're still playoff caliber. |
11 | Boise State Broncos | Tier 3. Only loss by 3 on the road to #1. Solid wins vs teams just outside my top 25. |
12 | Arizona State Sun Devils | Tier 3. Improbably the top big 12 team. Can win out and make playoff. |
13 | Clemson Tigers | Tier 3. ACC title is still possibility, and a win over SCAR may very well put them in as an at-large. |
14 | BYU Cougars | Tier 4. Big 12 title is unlikely at this point. But not impossible, and some chaos could get them in either way. |
15 | Alabama Crimson Tide | Tier 4. Need help, but probably the best 3 loss team. Not impossible to get in. |
16 | Iowa State Cyclones | Tier 4. Big 12 title appearance as long as they win Farmageddon. That's their way into the playoff. |
17 | Ole Miss Rebels | Tier 4. A bevy of SEC teams that need help between 17 and 20. Order is largely based on H2H. |
18 | South Carolina Gamecocks | Tier 4. |
19 | Texas A&M Aggies | Tier 4. |
20 | Missouri Tigers | Tier 4. |
21 | Army West Point | Tier 4. Can still win the American and get in. |
22 | Kansas State Wildcats | Tier 4. Can still win Farmageddon and then the Big 12 to get in. |
23 | Tulane Green Wave | Tier 4. Can win the American and get in if Boise St loses. |
24 | Illinois Fighting Illini | Tier 5. I just don't see how Illinois can get in. |
25 | Colorado Buffaloes | Tier 4. Could conceivably win the Big 12 but chances are slim. |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Oregon Ducks | 0.00 |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.00 |
3 | Texas Longhorns | 0.00 |
4 | Miami Hurricanes | 1.43 |
5 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.00 |
6 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.00 |
7 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 |
8 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.00 |
9 | SMU Mustangs | 0.00 |
10 | Indiana Hoosiers | 0.00 |
11 | Boise State Broncos | 0.00 |
12 | Arizona State Sun Devils | 0.00 |
13 | Clemson Tigers | 0.00 |
14 | BYU Cougars | 0.23 |
15 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
16 | Iowa State Cyclones | 0.00 |
17 | Ole Miss Rebels | 0.00 |
18 | South Carolina Gamecocks | 0.00 |
19 | Texas A&M Aggies | 0.00 |
20 | Missouri Tigers | 1.90 |
21 | Army West Point | 0.00 |
22 | Kansas State Wildcats | 0.00 |
23 | Tulane Green Wave | -0.62 |
24 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 0.00 |
25 | Colorado Buffaloes | 0.00 |