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thatoneguyD13 Ballot for 2024 Week 14

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Nov. 24, 2024, 12:39 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Early season rankings are based largely on expected results versus other ranked teams, and as the season goes leans more heavily on actual resume. By the end of the season, rankings are based entirely on resume. I lean heavily into head to head results and results against common opponents. I also sort teams into 6 tiers based on championship/playoff likelihood. Tier 1: Championship Frontrunners, near lock to make playoffs Tier 2: Championship Contenders with excellent chance of making playoffs Tier 3: Decent possibility to make playoffs, unlikely to compete for championship Tier 4: Outside playoff shot Tier 5: Unlikely to make playoffs but not quite eliminated Tier 6: No shot at playoffs

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks Tier 1. Win over #2 team is still the best win of any team. Only undefeated. Easy #1
2 Ohio State Buckeyes Tier 1. Two top ten victories and only loss is to #1 on the road by 1 point. About as good of a resume as you can have with one loss.
3 Texas Longhorns Tier 2. Lack of ranked wins is a bit concerning but still, excellent team.
4 Miami Hurricanes Tier 3. Great offense and mediocre defense. Hard to say exactly how good they are. #4 for now.
5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Tier 3. Some solid wins, but the worst loss of a top team. Unsure how good they are as well.
6 Penn State Nittany Lions Tier 3.
7 Georgia Bulldogs Tier 3. Best two loss team by far. Wins over #3, #8, and #13. Losses are both to ranked teams. But they've struggled with weaker opponents too.
8 Tennessee Volunteers Tier 3. H2H loss keeps them behind UGA for sure. But a solid resume overall.
9 SMU Mustangs Tier 3.
10 Indiana Hoosiers Tier 3. Beat soundly on road by #2 but still deserves credit. I think they're still playoff caliber.
11 Boise State Broncos Tier 3. Only loss by 3 on the road to #1. Solid wins vs teams just outside my top 25.
12 Arizona State Sun Devils Tier 3. Improbably the top big 12 team. Can win out and make playoff.
13 Clemson Tigers Tier 3. ACC title is still possibility, and a win over SCAR may very well put them in as an at-large.
14 BYU Cougars Tier 4. Big 12 title is unlikely at this point. But not impossible, and some chaos could get them in either way.
15 Alabama Crimson Tide Tier 4. Need help, but probably the best 3 loss team. Not impossible to get in.
16 Iowa State Cyclones Tier 4. Big 12 title appearance as long as they win Farmageddon. That's their way into the playoff.
17 Ole Miss Rebels Tier 4. A bevy of SEC teams that need help between 17 and 20. Order is largely based on H2H.
18 South Carolina Gamecocks Tier 4.
19 Texas A&M Aggies Tier 4.
20 Missouri Tigers Tier 4.
21 Army West Point Tier 4. Can still win the American and get in.
22 Kansas State Wildcats Tier 4. Can still win Farmageddon and then the Big 12 to get in.
23 Tulane Green Wave Tier 4. Can win the American and get in if Boise St loses.
24 Illinois Fighting Illini Tier 5. I just don't see how Illinois can get in.
25 Colorado Buffaloes Tier 4. Could conceivably win the Big 12 but chances are slim.

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