NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2024 Week 14
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 25, 2024, 11:59 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
4.077 (11.8-0.2) |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
3.277 (10.8-1.2) |
| 3 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
2.460 (10.9-1.1) |
| 4 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
2.426 (10.9-1.1) |
| 5 |
Boise State Broncos
|
1.928 (10.8-1.2) |
| 6 |
Texas Longhorns
|
1.827 (10.7-1.3) |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1.710 (9.9-2.1) |
| 8 |
SMU Mustangs
|
1.665 (10.8-1.2) |
| 9 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
1.576 (10.7-1.3) |
| 10 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.497 (10.7-1.3) |
| 11 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
1.359 (8.7-3.3) |
| 12 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.342 (9.8-2.2) |
| 13 |
BYU Cougars
|
1.335 (9.8-2.2) |
| 14 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.305 (8.8-3.2) |
| 15 |
Clemson Tigers
|
1.233 (9.5-2.5) |
| 16 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
1.214 (8.5-3.5) |
| 17 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
1.164 (9.5-2.5) |
| 18 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
1.124 (8.3-3.7) |
| 19 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1.123 (8.9-3.1) |
| 20 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
1.109 (6.2-5.8) |
| 21 |
Arizona State Sun Devils
|
1.087 (9.6-2.4) |
| 22 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
1.072 (8.5-3.5) |
| 23 |
LSU Tigers
|
1.031 (7.5-4.5) |
| 24 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
1.030 (7.6-4.4) |
| 25 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.988 (8.7-3.3) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.34 |
| 4 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
1.37 |
| 5 |
Boise State Broncos
|
0.79 |
| 6 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-0.74 |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-1.42 |
| 11 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
4.10 |
| 12 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.00 |
| 13 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.53 |
| 14 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.25 |
| 19 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
5.23 |
| 21 |
Arizona State Sun Devils
|
-1.37 |
| 22 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
LSU Tigers
|
1.76 |
| 24 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Tulane Green Wave
|
1.47 |
Army West Point
|
0.34 |
UNLV Rebels
|
0.63 |
Colorado Buffaloes
|
0.27 |
Total Score: 20.63