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MADBuc49 Ballot for 2024 Week 13

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Nov. 17, 2024, 12:25 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Week 13 notes: rare mid-season formula tweak as I realized it was penalizing Big Ten/Big 12 teams more than majority of SEC and some ACC teams as well as G6 teams less in general. Deservedness keeping highly-rated 2-loss teams such as Alabama and Ole Miss behind 0-loss Army; 2-loss teams such as Georgia and UNLV can be ranked over Army due to loss allowance. General notes: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = Team A cannot be ranked over Team B that has 2+ fewer losses (ex: 9-3 LSU can be ranked over 10-2 Missouri, but 9-3 LSU cannot be ranked over 11-1 Tulane even if LSU beat Tulane heads up, rankings have LSU over Tulane, and/or I think LSU is better than Tulane) unless Team B is giving a X loss allowance to Team A due to significantly fewer P4 games played. Loss allowances come into play when: P5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 games, 10-8=2, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); P5 teams play 6 fewer P5 games than a G5 team (11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 teams, 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 teams, 8-2=6, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); G5 teams play 10 fewer P5 teams than a P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 10-0=0, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty); or G5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another G5 team (ex: 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 2-0=2, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty). If the game differential exceeds more than 2/6/10/2 in those scenarios, add another loss allowance for each additional P5 game played difference in that scenario.

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks +0. Would be the #1 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #8 Georgia/#9 Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl
2 Ohio State Buckeyes +0. Would be the #5 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #12 Boise State in the first round
3 Penn State Nittany Lions +0. Would be the #6 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #11 Clemson in the first round
4 Indiana Hoosiers +0. Would be the #7 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #10 Miami in the first round
5 Georgia Bulldogs +13. Sharp rise due to formula update. Would be the #8 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #9 Notre Dame in the first round due to not qualifying for conference championship. Loss allowance over Army
6 Texas Longhorns -1. Drop due to formula update. Would be the #2 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #7 Indiana/#10 Miami in the Sugar Bowl as Georgia would not be in conference championship
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish +1. Would be the #9 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Georgia in the first round
8 BYU Cougars -1. Drop due to formula update. Would be the #3 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #6 Penn State/#11 Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl
9 SMU Mustangs +0. Would be the #4 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #5 Ohio State/#12 Boise State in the Cotton Bowl
10 Miami Hurricanes +0. Would be the #10 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #7 Indiana in the first round
11 Clemson Tigers +8. Sharp rise due to formula update. Would be the #11 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #6 Penn State in the first round. Loss allowance over Army
12 Colorado Buffaloes +9. Sharp rise due to formula update. Loss allowance over Army
13 Arizona State Sun Devils +10. Sharp rise due to formula update. Loss allowance over Army
14 Iowa State Cyclones +8. Sharp rise due to formula update. Loss allowance over Army
15 Boise State Broncos -4. Drop due to formula update. Would be the #12 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #5 Ohio State in the first round
16 UNLV Rebels -4. Drop due to formula update. Loss allowance over Army
17 Army West Point -3. Drop due to formula update. Lowest-rated 0 loss team
18 Tennessee Volunteers -13. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 2+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Tennessee from being ranked ahead of Army
19 Alabama Crimson Tide -4. Drop due to formula update. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 2+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Alabama from being ranked ahead of Army
20 Ole Miss Rebels -3. Drop due to formula update. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 2+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Ole Miss from being ranked ahead of Army
21 South Carolina Gamecocks NEW. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 2+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as South Carolina from being ranked ahead of Army
22 Illinois Fighting Illini NEW. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 2+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Illinois from being ranked ahead of Army
23 Texas A&M Aggies -7. Drop due to formula update. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 2+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Texas A&M from being ranked ahead of Army
24 Kansas State Wildcats -3. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 2+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Kansas State from being ranked ahead of Army
25 Pittsburgh Panthers +0. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 2+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Pittsburgh from being ranked ahead of Army. Next 5: Missouri, Syracuse, Tulane, Duke, Washington State

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