NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2024 Week 13
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 17, 2024, 11:50 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
3.608 (11.8-0.2) |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
2.777 (10.5-1.5) |
| 3 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
2.536 (11.2-0.8) |
| 4 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
1.961 (10.6-1.4) |
| 5 |
Texas Longhorns
|
1.687 (10.6-1.4) |
| 6 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1.678 (9.9-2.1) |
| 7 |
Boise State Broncos
|
1.578 (10.7-1.3) |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.483 (9.6-2.4) |
| 9 |
SMU Mustangs
|
1.430 (10.5-1.5) |
| 10 |
BYU Cougars
|
1.382 (10.3-1.7) |
| 11 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.365 (10.5-1.5) |
| 12 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
1.362 (10.6-1.4) |
| 13 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.287 (9.7-2.3) |
| 14 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1.273 (9.7-2.3) |
| 15 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
1.201 (8.5-3.5) |
| 16 |
Clemson Tigers
|
1.194 (9.5-2.5) |
| 17 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
1.174 (8.9-3.1) |
| 18 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
1.003 (8.1-3.9) |
| 19 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.959 (7.3-4.7) |
| 20 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.945 (9.2-2.8) |
| 21 |
Colorado Buffaloes
|
0.920 (9.3-2.7) |
| 22 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.910 (5.9-6.1) |
| 23 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.905 (8.2-3.8) |
| 24 |
Arizona State Sun Devils
|
0.874 (9.1-2.9) |
| 25 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.837 (7.3-4.7) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.03 |
| 5 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.24 |
| 7 |
Boise State Broncos
|
0.42 |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-0.67 |
| 12 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 13 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-0.56 |
| 15 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
0.42 |
| 16 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
4.65 |
| 19 |
LSU Tigers
|
5.85 |
| 20 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
Colorado Buffaloes
|
-0.99 |
| 22 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
3.24 |
| 23 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.51 |
| 24 |
Arizona State Sun Devils
|
-0.68 |
| 25 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Army West Point
|
1.44 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
1.28 |
UNLV Rebels
|
0.23 |
Washington State Cougars
|
0.08 |
Total Score: 21.32