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ExternalTangents Ballot for 2024 Week 11

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 4, 2024, 8:07 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Probabilistic, predictive rating based only on teams' results so far this season, using opponent-adjusted points scored and allowed. This is NOT an achievement/resume rating, it's meant to predict the margins of future games. As wins and losses are not the key input, there will be teams ranked ahead of opponents they've beaten and teams with a better record than them. A close loss against an elite team is better than a close win against a bad team. Net rating is how far above/below the average Div 1 team (FBS and FCS combined) the team is. Offense and defense ratings are how many points above/below average they score or allow. This rating system is good at predicting expected margins for future games, with a relatively low absolute error.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes Net Rating: 29.16; O: 14.91, O Rank: 5; D: -14.25, D Rank: 5
2 Texas Longhorns Net Rating: 28.59; O: 13.03, O Rank: 8; D: -15.56, D Rank: 2
3 Tennessee Volunteers Net Rating: 28.13; O: 12.19, O Rank: 11; D: -15.94, D Rank: 1
4 Alabama Crimson Tide Net Rating: 27.84; O: 15.84, O Rank: 3; D: -12, D Rank: 14
5 Indiana Hoosiers Net Rating: 27.83; O: 16.71, O Rank: 2; D: -11.13, D Rank: 16
6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Net Rating: 27.19; O: 12.19, O Rank: 11; D: -15, D Rank: 4
7 Georgia Bulldogs Net Rating: 27; O: 13.22, O Rank: 6; D: -13.78, D Rank: 6
8 Ole Miss Rebels Net Rating: 25.75; O: 13.13, O Rank: 7; D: -12.63, D Rank: 11
9 Miami Hurricanes Net Rating: 25.5; O: 18.88, O Rank: 1; D: -6.63, D Rank: 51
10 Oregon Ducks Net Rating: 25.08; O: 12.21, O Rank: 10; D: -12.88, D Rank: 9
11 South Carolina Gamecocks Net Rating: 23.72; O: 10.78, O Rank: 24; D: -12.94, D Rank: 8
12 Iowa State Cyclones Net Rating: 22.69; O: 7.22, O Rank: 48; D: -15.47, D Rank: 3
13 Penn State Nittany Lions Net Rating: 22.13; O: 8.44, O Rank: 40; D: -13.69, D Rank: 7
14 BYU Cougars Net Rating: 21.47; O: 10.69, O Rank: 25; D: -10.78, D Rank: 18
15 Iowa Hawkeyes Net Rating: 21.33; O: 11.88, O Rank: 15; D: -9.46, D Rank: 32
16 LSU Tigers Net Rating: 21.28; O: 11.72, O Rank: 16; D: -9.56, D Rank: 31
17 Boise State Broncos Net Rating: 21.19; O: 15, O Rank: 4; D: -6.19, D Rank: 56
18 Louisville Cardinals Net Rating: 21; O: 11.96, O Rank: 14; D: -9.04, D Rank: 35
19 Texas A&M Aggies Net Rating: 20.83; O: 10.29, O Rank: 28; D: -10.54, D Rank: 20
20 Colorado Buffaloes Net Rating: 20.06; O: 10.31, O Rank: 27; D: -9.75, D Rank: 27
21 SMU Mustangs Net Rating: 19.33; O: 12.29, O Rank: 9; D: -7.04, D Rank: 49
22 Kansas State Wildcats Net Rating: 19.08; O: 9.13, O Rank: 35; D: -9.96, D Rank: 25
23 Tulane Green Wave Net Rating: 18.67; O: 11.29, O Rank: 18; D: -7.38, D Rank: 45
24 USC Trojans Net Rating: 18.67; O: 9.88, O Rank: 31; D: -8.79, D Rank: 36
25 Florida Gators Net Rating: 18.56; O: 8.91, O Rank: 36; D: -9.66, D Rank: 29

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