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quantum_jedi Ballot for 2024 Week 11

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 4, 2024, 8:28 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Wins and losses are weighted by the difference in "rank" between the winner/loser and the median team. Scaled such that beating strong teams matters more than beating weak teams, and losing to bad teams is worse than losing to strong teams. Winning is weighted slightly more than losing. Results are now (as of week 4) scaled by offensive and defensive points per drive efficiencies, and strength of schedule determined by cumulative opponents score. Preseason rankings are weighted by returning production, talent composite, and previous season success. Next five out:

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks (+0) Another week another dominant win for the Ducks.
2 Miami Hurricanes (+2) Slow start for the Hurricanes, but pulled away in the second half to put away a tough Duke squad. The schedule hasn't exactly been daunting, but 9-0 is hard no matter who you play.
3 Indiana Hoosiers (+3) 9Windiana! Trailed for the first time all year and then the death machine got rolling with 47 straight points. Can the Hoosiers secure their first ever 10-win season next week?
4 Texas Longhorns (-1) Idle.
5 Ohio State Buckeyes (+3) Excellent win for the Buckeyes! Game seemed like a copy of OSU-PSU from the last few years. This was a one score game, but never really felt in doubt for Ohio State.
6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-1) Idle.
7 Georgia Bulldogs (+2) If Lagway doesn't get hurt, do the Bulldogs lose to Florida? This team is very talented, but Beck needs to protect the ball otherwise it is going to cost Georgia.
8 Penn State Nittany Lions (-6) Rinse and repeat. Penn State just cannot win the big game against Ohio State. This is still a really good football team and should be able to secure a spot in the playoff.
9 BYU Cougars (-2) Idle. Huge road game against Utah is next.
10 Alabama Crimson Tide (+1) Idle. Can Alabama keep the momentum from the Mizzou win as the go into Baton Rouge? This is a must win for the Tide.
11 Ole Miss Rebels (+6) Dominated a solid Arkansas team leads to a big rise in the rankings for Ole Miss. Massive game with a potentially vulnerable Georgia coming to town next week.
12 Tennessee Volunteers (+4) Took down Kentucky. Defense is fantastic, but the offense is still trying to find it's rhythm. Should get an easy win over Mississippi State next before going to Georgia.
13 Iowa State Cyclones (-3) The Cyclones suffer their first defeat of the season at the hands of Texas Tech. Tough loss for the Cyclones, but they still control their own destiny for a Big12 title and playoff bid.
14 SMU Mustangs (+6) Absolutely crushed Pitt. SMU looks better every week and their only loss is to an undefeated BYU. Mustangs are on a collision course with Miami to play for their first ACC title.
15 Kansas State Wildcats (-2) That was a bad loss, even with the weather. Kansas State has been flirting with defeat for a while and it finally got them. The Wildcats need to figure out how to not make as many mistakes late in the game.
16 Clemson Tigers (-4) Clemson suffered their first ACC loss of the year at the hands of Louisville. The Tigers are mauling bad teams and losing to good teams. At this point, they need some major help to make the ACC Championship.
17 Pittsburgh Panthers (-3) Ugly loss against SMU. Seems like relying on multiple pick-6s in a half is not a sustainable strategy. Look for the Panthers to bounce back against the Hoos next, before a tough final stretch to the season.
18 Texas A&M Aggies (-3) What the hell Aggies? I thought Texas A&M was looking like a contender for the SEC and a playoff spot, but getting smoked by South Carolina is bad. A&M is still in line to make the SEC championship game, but that game against Texas is looking like a must win now.
19 Washington State Cougars (-1) Idle. If the Cougs win out, with their only loss against Boise State, can they sneak into the playoff? The first playoff rankings will be very telling what the committee thinks of WSU.
20 LSU Tigers (-1) Idle. Huge game against Alabama next.
21 Boise State Broncos (+1) Dominated SDSU. Teams are selling out to stop Jeanty, but this opens up the rest of the field for the Boise offense. It's unfair because this is a terrific team, but what if the Broncos had beaten Oregon? I personally think this team should be ranked much higher than #21, but the model is down on Boise State because the Mountain West is down in general as a conference.
22 Army West Point (+1) Slowly suffocated Air Force without Bryson Daily. Hopefully it's a short-term illness for Daily cause the Black Knights will need him at his best against Notre Dame in a few weeks.
23 Arizona State Sun Devils (+7) The Sun Devils are going bowling! Crushed Oklahoma State and Dillingham has completely revitalized this program in his first two years. Tough end to the season ahead, but at this point the season has been a major success.
24 Colorado Buffaloes (+2) Idle, but due to shuffling at the bottom of the rankings the Buffaloes are ranked! Tough game next against a good Texas Tech.
25 Louisville Cardinals (+9) Phenomenal win for the Cardinals this week. Finally broke through after going 2-3 in a series of one-score games.

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