Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Nov. 3, 2024, 12:28 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Week 11 notes: Deservedness keeping highly-rated 2-loss teams such as Texas A&M and LSU behind 0-loss Army; UNLV can be ranked over Army due to loss allowance. General notes: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = Team A cannot be ranked over Team B that has 2+ fewer losses (ex: 9-3 LSU can be ranked over 10-2 Missouri, but 9-3 LSU cannot be ranked over 11-1 Tulane even if LSU beat Tulane heads up, rankings have LSU over Tulane, and/or I think LSU is better than Tulane) unless Team B is giving a X loss allowance to Team A due to significantly fewer P4 games played. Loss allowances come into play when: P5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 games, 10-8=2, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); P5 teams play 6 fewer P5 games than a G5 team (11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 teams, 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 teams, 8-2=6, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); G5 teams play 10 fewer P5 teams than a P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 10-0=0, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty); or G5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another G5 team (ex: 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 2-0=2, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty). If the game differential exceeds more than 2/6/10/2 in those scenarios, add another loss allowance for each additional P5 game played difference in that scenario.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Oregon Ducks | +0. Would be the #1 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #8 Texas/#9 Tennessee in the Rose Bowl |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | +0. Would be the #5 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #12 Boise State in the first round |
3 | Miami Hurricanes | +1. Would be the #2 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #7 Indiana/#10 Tennessee in the Orange Bowl |
4 | Penn State Nittany Lions | -1. Would be the #6 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #11 SMU in the first round |
5 | Indiana Hoosiers | +2. Would be the #7 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #10 Notre Dame in the first round |
6 | Georgia Bulldogs | -1. Would be the #3 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #6 Penn State/#11 SMU in the Sugar Bowl |
7 | Texas Longhorns | -1. Would be the #8 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #9 Tennessee in the first round |
8 | Tennessee Volunteers | +0. Would be the #9 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Texas in the first round |
9 | BYU Cougars | +0. Would be the #4 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #5 Ohio State/#12 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl |
10 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | +1. Would be the #10 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Indiana in the first round |
11 | SMU Mustangs | +4. Would be the #11 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #6 Penn State in the first round |
12 | Iowa State Cyclones | +1. Why the rise after a loss? A lot of 0- and 1-loss teams lost and Iowa State still rating better than Army. |
13 | Pittsburgh Panthers | +3. Why the rise after a loss? A lot of 0- and 1-loss teams lost and Pittsburgh still rating better than Army. |
14 | Boise State Broncos | +3. Would be the #12 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #5 Ohio State in the first round. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 2-loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Texas A&M from being ranked ahead of Army |
15 | UNLV Rebels | +3. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 2-loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Texas A&M from being ranked ahead of Army |
16 | Washington State Cougars | +3. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 2-loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Texas A&M from being ranked ahead of Army |
17 | Army West Point | +4. Lowest-rated 0-loss team |
18 | Texas A&M Aggies | -6. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher |
19 | LSU Tigers | +4. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher |
20 | Alabama Crimson Tide | +4. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher |
21 | Clemson Tigers | -11. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher |
22 | Ole Miss Rebels | NEW. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher |
23 | Kansas State Wildcats | -9. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher |
24 | Colorado Buffaloes | +1. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher |
25 | Missouri Tigers | NEW. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher. Next 12: Syracuse, Arizona State, Tulane, Louisiana (lowest-rated 1-loss team), Louisville (Deservedness blocking them from being ranked over 1-loss teams), South Carolina, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Duke |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Oregon Ducks | 0.00 |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.17 |
3 | Miami Hurricanes | 0.00 |
4 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.93 |
5 | Indiana Hoosiers | 0.00 |
6 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 |
7 | Texas Longhorns | 0.00 |
8 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.00 |
9 | BYU Cougars | 0.00 |
10 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.00 |
11 | SMU Mustangs | 0.00 |
12 | Iowa State Cyclones | 0.41 |
13 | Pittsburgh Panthers | 0.86 |
14 | Boise State Broncos | 0.00 |
15 | UNLV Rebels | 10.09 |
16 | Washington State Cougars | 0.17 |
17 | Army West Point | 0.00 |
18 | Texas A&M Aggies | 0.00 |
19 | LSU Tigers | 0.00 |
20 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -1.20 |
21 | Clemson Tigers | 0.00 |
22 | Ole Miss Rebels | -0.68 |
23 | Kansas State Wildcats | 0.00 |
24 | Colorado Buffaloes | -0.02 |
25 | Missouri Tigers | 0.00 |