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MADBuc49 Ballot for 2024 Week 11

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Nov. 3, 2024, 12:28 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Week 11 notes: Deservedness keeping highly-rated 2-loss teams such as Texas A&M and LSU behind 0-loss Army; UNLV can be ranked over Army due to loss allowance. General notes: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = Team A cannot be ranked over Team B that has 2+ fewer losses (ex: 9-3 LSU can be ranked over 10-2 Missouri, but 9-3 LSU cannot be ranked over 11-1 Tulane even if LSU beat Tulane heads up, rankings have LSU over Tulane, and/or I think LSU is better than Tulane) unless Team B is giving a X loss allowance to Team A due to significantly fewer P4 games played. Loss allowances come into play when: P5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 games, 10-8=2, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); P5 teams play 6 fewer P5 games than a G5 team (11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 teams, 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 teams, 8-2=6, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); G5 teams play 10 fewer P5 teams than a P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 10-0=0, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty); or G5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another G5 team (ex: 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 2-0=2, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty). If the game differential exceeds more than 2/6/10/2 in those scenarios, add another loss allowance for each additional P5 game played difference in that scenario.

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks +0. Would be the #1 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #8 Texas/#9 Tennessee in the Rose Bowl
2 Ohio State Buckeyes +0. Would be the #5 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #12 Boise State in the first round
3 Miami Hurricanes +1. Would be the #2 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #7 Indiana/#10 Tennessee in the Orange Bowl
4 Penn State Nittany Lions -1. Would be the #6 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #11 SMU in the first round
5 Indiana Hoosiers +2. Would be the #7 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #10 Notre Dame in the first round
6 Georgia Bulldogs -1. Would be the #3 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #6 Penn State/#11 SMU in the Sugar Bowl
7 Texas Longhorns -1. Would be the #8 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #9 Tennessee in the first round
8 Tennessee Volunteers +0. Would be the #9 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Texas in the first round
9 BYU Cougars +0. Would be the #4 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #5 Ohio State/#12 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl
10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish +1. Would be the #10 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Indiana in the first round
11 SMU Mustangs +4. Would be the #11 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #6 Penn State in the first round
12 Iowa State Cyclones +1. Why the rise after a loss? A lot of 0- and 1-loss teams lost and Iowa State still rating better than Army.
13 Pittsburgh Panthers +3. Why the rise after a loss? A lot of 0- and 1-loss teams lost and Pittsburgh still rating better than Army.
14 Boise State Broncos +3. Would be the #12 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #5 Ohio State in the first round. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 2-loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Texas A&M from being ranked ahead of Army
15 UNLV Rebels +3. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 2-loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Texas A&M from being ranked ahead of Army
16 Washington State Cougars +3. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 2-loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Texas A&M from being ranked ahead of Army
17 Army West Point +4. Lowest-rated 0-loss team
18 Texas A&M Aggies -6. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher
19 LSU Tigers +4. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher
20 Alabama Crimson Tide +4. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher
21 Clemson Tigers -11. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher
22 Ole Miss Rebels NEW. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher
23 Kansas State Wildcats -9. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher
24 Colorado Buffaloes +1. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher
25 Missouri Tigers NEW. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher. Next 12: Syracuse, Arizona State, Tulane, Louisiana (lowest-rated 1-loss team), Louisville (Deservedness blocking them from being ranked over 1-loss teams), South Carolina, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Duke

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