NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2024 Week 11
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 3, 2024, 11:41 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
2.532 (11.4-0.6) |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
2.150 (10.5-1.6) |
| 3 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
1.978 (11.0-1.0) |
| 4 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
1.855 (11.4-0.6) |
| 5 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1.573 (9.9-2.1) |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
1.559 (10.1-1.9) |
| 7 |
Texas Longhorns
|
1.467 (10.1-1.9) |
| 8 |
BYU Cougars
|
1.447 (10.6-1.4) |
| 9 |
SMU Mustangs
|
1.425 (10.3-1.7) |
| 10 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.387 (10.1-1.9) |
| 11 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.345 (9.2-2.8) |
| 12 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.232 (10.3-1.7) |
| 13 |
Boise State Broncos
|
1.225 (10.4-1.6) |
| 14 |
LSU Tigers
|
1.124 (8.4-3.6) |
| 15 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
1.109 (8.9-3.1) |
| 16 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1.102 (9.2-2.8) |
| 17 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
1.100 (9.1-2.9) |
| 18 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
1.069 (9.4-2.6) |
| 19 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
1.066 (8.2-3.8) |
| 20 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
1.036 (8.9-3.1) |
| 21 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
0.991 (7.9-4.1) |
| 22 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.957 (8.1-3.9) |
| 23 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.940 (8.6-3.4) |
| 24 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.915 (6.2-5.8) |
| 25 |
Washington State Cougars
|
0.838 (10.2-1.8) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.17 |
| 3 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.20 |
| 4 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.21 |
| 7 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.10 |
| 10 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-0.03 |
| 13 |
Boise State Broncos
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.06 |
| 15 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
-0.05 |
| 19 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
1.04 |
| 20 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
1.03 |
| 22 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
2.63 |
| 23 |
Clemson Tigers
|
-0.04 |
| 24 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
1.21 |
| 25 |
Washington State Cougars
|
-0.83 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Army West Point
|
1.10 |
Colorado Buffaloes
|
0.79 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.13 |
Total Score: 9.61