Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Oct. 28, 2024, 11:02 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Notes for this week: Mizzou, Wisconsin dropped out.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Oregon Ducks	+1
2	Georgia Bulldogs	+1
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	-2
4	Penn State Nittany Lions	+3
5	Texas Longhorns	no change
6	Miami Hurricanes	+8
7	Clemson Tigers	+1
8	Tennessee Volunteers	-4
9	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-3
10	Alabama Crimson Tide	-1
11	Ole Miss Rebels	-1
12	Indiana Hoosiers	-1
13	Texas A&M Aggies	-1 but flipped with LSU because this game literally just happened
14	LSU Tigers	-1, model ranked them 13th above A&M but they just lost
15	Iowa State Cyclones	-1
16	Tulane Green Wave	+3
17	Army West Point	+4
18	Washington Huskies	+5
19	Kansas State Wildcats	-3
20	Michigan Wolverines	+4
21	SMU Mustangs	-4
22	BYU Cougars	+4
23	James Madison Dukes	+2
24	Boise State Broncos	-2
25	Colorado Buffaloes	+4, I manually removed USC for them because USC has 4 losses

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Oregon Ducks	0.00
2	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.20
4	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
5	Texas Longhorns	0.07
6	Miami Hurricanes	0.00
7	Clemson Tigers	0.63
8	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
9	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
10	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.52
11	Ole Miss Rebels	1.73
12	Indiana Hoosiers	-0.54
13	Texas A&M Aggies	0.00
14	LSU Tigers	0.82
15	Iowa State Cyclones	-1.05
16	Tulane Green Wave	8.94
17	Army West Point	0.00
18	Washington Huskies	7.25
19	Kansas State Wildcats	-0.47
20	Michigan Wolverines	5.15
21	SMU Mustangs	-0.37
22	BYU Cougars	-2.89
23	James Madison Dukes	2.21
24	Boise State Broncos	-1.62
25	Colorado Buffaloes	-0.13

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Pittsburgh Panthers	1.95
Washington State Cougars	0.94
Illinois Fighting Illini	0.19

Total Score: 37.67