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70stang Ballot for 2024 Week 10

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Oct. 29, 2024, 2:33 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Welcome back to the Report Card Poll! THIS IS NOT A PREDICTIVE POLL. The key tenet of this poll is that pre-season polls are bullshit, and poll inertia is extremely bullshit. I endeavor to eliminate as much poll inertia as possible. This poll is entirely resume based. It is not intended to be predictive in any way. We're here to generate a Report Card. What have you accomplished on the field so far this season against your schedule, and how hard are you scheduling? That's the only question that matters. The result is generated almost entirely algorithmically. I reserve human input strictly for scenarios where things like head-to-head may be important. All P5 teams are equal, all G5 teams are equal, and all FCS teams are equal to start the season. This is a black box methodology. WEEKLY NOTES: This week, ranked wins become more indicative of success, and losing to a ranked team looks better than losing to an unranked team. Previously, the primary delineation (outside of loss count) has been beating P5 teams. This week, we have essentially split that delineation into subgroups of teams with a certain P5 win count and at least one ranked win, or with a certain P5 win count but no ranked wins. Army is the lone team in this poll who hasn't beaten at least 1 P5 team, or any ranked teams. They are undefeated at 7-0, and deserve to be ranked (albeit fairly low). Boise is the only team in the poll outside of Army that hasn't beaten at least 2 P5 teams. They make the poll on the virtue of having multiple ranked wins this week; UNLV's strong schedule and reasonably quality losses are helping to boost Boise. RECEIVING VOTES: Ole Miss, Duke, Arizona State

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks TIER 1 - Undefeated Teams with at least 1 Ranked Win Oregon is 8-0 with 6 P5 wins, including 2 ranked wins over last week's #12 Illinois and #22 Ohio State, as well as 1 ranked G5 win over last week's #25 Boise State, and 1 FCS win. With three ranked wins, Oregon is the clear number one in my poll this week.
2 BYU Cougars BYU is 8-0 with 6 P5 wins, including 2 ranked wins over last week's #14 Kansas State and #15 SMU, as well as 1 G5 win and 1 FCS win.
3 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State is 7-0 with 5 P5 wins, including a ranked win over last week's #12 Illinois, as well as 1 G5 win and 1 FCS win. With a better ranked win, Penn State beats out Pitt for this spot.
4 Pittsburgh Panthers Pitt is 7-0 with 5 P5 wins, including a ranked win over last week's #22 Syracuse, as well as a 1 G5 win and 1 FCS win. Pitt is the last team in this tier with a ranked win.
5 Miami Hurricanes TIER 2: Undefeated Teams with 5 P5 Wins (no ranked wins) It's worth stating here that there would normally be a category for 6 P5 wins with no ranked wins, but there are currently no teams with 6 P5 wins that don't have at least one ranked win. Miami is 8-0 with 5 P5 wins, including 3 away, as well as 2 G5 wins including 1 away, and 1 FCS win.
6 Iowa State Cyclones Iowa State is 7-0 with 5 P5 wins, including 3 away, as well as 1 G5 win and 1 FCS win. Despite playing one less game, winning an extra away P5 game compared to Indiana puts them higher here, since the difference is a single home G5 game.
7 Indiana Hoosiers Indiana is 8-0 with 5 P5 wins, including 2 away, as well as 2 G5 wins and 1 FCS win.
8 Texas A&M Aggies TIER 3 - 1 Loss Teams with 5 P5 Wins and at least 1 Ranked Win TAMU is 7-1 with 5 P5 wins, including 2 ranked wins against last week's #16 LSU and #20 Mizzou, as well as 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a home ranked loss to #9 ND. Playing an extra game against a G5 team, having two ranked wins like UGA, and losing to a top 10 team vs an unranked team places TAMU above UGA in this tier.
9 Georgia Bulldogs UGA is 6-1 with 5 P5 wins, including 2 ranked wins over last week's #10 Clemson and #17 Texas, as well as 1 FCS win, and 1 loss to Alabama.
10 SMU Mustangs SMU is 7-1 with 5 P5 wins, including 1 ranked win against last week's #19 Duke, 1 G5 win away, 1 FCS win, and 1 loss to #1 BYU. Ordinarily, ND would be in this spot with the better ranked win, but with only a loss to the #1 team, SMU takes it from ND who lost to a G5 team. Rather fortunately, this helps me avoid having TAMU and ND back to back, because head to head would put ND first, despite TAMU having the objectively better resume. Losing to a G5 team vs a ranked P5 is a two-spot swing for ND this week.
11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish ND is 7-1 with 5 P5 wins, including 1 ranked win over last week's #13 TAMU, as well as 2 G5 wins and 1 loss to G5 NIU.
12 Kansas State Wildcats TIER 4 - 1 Loss Teams with 5 P5 Wins (no ranked wins) Kansas State is 7-1 with 5 P5 wins, 1 G5 away win, 1 FCS win, and 1 loss at last week's #1 BYU.
13 Clemson Tigers Clemson is 6-1 with 5 P5 wins, 1 G5 win, and 1 loss at a neutral site against #8 UGA. K State has the better loss, as much as I hate that term, and one more away game against a G5 team.
14 Texas Longhorns TIER 5 - 1 Loss Teams with 4 P5 Wins (no ranked wins) Texas takes the top spot in this tier at 7-1, with 4 P5 wins, 3 G5 wins, and 1 home loss to last week's #8 UGA. With one more game played, no FCS team on the schedule, and a loss to a better team, Texas takes this spot over Tennessee.
15 Tennessee Volunteers Tennessee is 6-1 with 4 P5 wins, as well as 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and 1 away loss to Arkansas.
16 Ohio State Buckeyes TIER 6 - 1 Loss Teams with 3 P5 Wins (no ranked wins) Ohio State is the only team in this tier, at 6-1 with 3 P5 wins, 3 G5 wins, and an away loss to last week's #2 Oregon.
17 Boise State Broncos TIER 7 - 1 Loss Teams with either 2 P5 wins or At Least One Ranked Win Essentially, this would have been Wazzu's spot with 2 P5 wins, but Boise would have been the next tier and the next spot down, and with a head to head win over Washington State Boise State goes above them when the teams are next to each other in the poll. Boise State is 6-1 with 1 ranked P5 win against last week's #21 Wazzu, as well as 4 G5 wins including a ranked away win at #18 UNLV, 1 FCS win, and 1 loss at #2 Oregon.
18 Washington State Cougars Wazzu is 7-1 with 2 P5 wins, 4 G5 wins, 1 FCS win, and 1 loss to last week's #25 Boise.
19 Alabama Crimson Tide TIER 8 - 2 Loss Teams with 4 P5 Wins and at least 1 Ranked Win Alabama is the only team in this tier, at 6-2 with 4 P5 wins including 2 ranked wins against last week's #8 UGA and #20 Mizzou, as well as 2 G5 wins and 2 losses, away at Vanderbilt and away at #11 Tennessee
20 Illinois Fighting Illini TIER 9 - 2 Loss Teams with 4 P5 Wins (no ranked wins) Illinois is 6-2 with 4 P5 wins, including 1 away, as well as 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and 2 losses at last week's #4 Penn State and #2 Oregon. The teams in this tier are very close to equal, so Illinois only having lost away and to top 5 teams gives them the edge here. LSU and CU both have a loss to an unranked team.
21 LSU Tigers LSU is 6-2 with 4 P5 wins, including 2 away, as well as 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and 2 losses at last week's #13 TAMU and at a neutral site to USC. The difference in LSU and CU is that LSU has not lost at home, basically.
22 Colorado Buffaloes CU is 6-2 with 4 P5 wins, including 2 away, as well as 1 away G5 win, 1 FCS win, and 2 losses to last week's #14 Kansas State and at Nebraska.
23 Army West Point TIER 10 - Undefeated G5 (no ranked wins) Army is the only team in this tier, at 7-0 with no P5 games played.
24 UNLV Rebels TIER 11 - 2 Loss teams with 3 P5 Wins (no ranked wins) UNLV tops this tier at 6-2 with 3 P5 wins, all away, as well as 2 G5 wins, 1 FCS win, and 2 losses to last week's #23 Syracuse and #25 Boise State. They take this spot over the other teams in this tier due to winning all their P5 games away, and only having lost to ranked teams.
25 Missouri Tigers Mizzou is 6-2 with 3 P5 wins, 2 G5 wins including one away, 1 FCS win, and 2 losses to Alabama and last week's #13 TAMU.

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