NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2024 Week 10
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 27, 2024, 10:56 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
1.984 (11.0-1.0) |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
1.741 (10.0-2.0) |
| 3 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
1.691 (10.6-1.4) |
| 4 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
1.601 (11.2-0.8) |
| 5 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
1.569 (10.6-1.4) |
| 6 |
BYU Cougars
|
1.464 (10.7-1.3) |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1.440 (9.7-2.3) |
| 8 |
Texas Longhorns
|
1.402 (10.0-2.0) |
| 9 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
1.319 (9.9-2.1) |
| 10 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
1.282 (10.3-1.7) |
| 11 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.275 (10.0-2.0) |
| 12 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.250 (9.2-2.8) |
| 13 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
1.235 (9.4-2.6) |
| 14 |
SMU Mustangs
|
1.224 (9.9-2.1) |
| 15 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.209 (10.3-1.7) |
| 16 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
1.126 (9.5-2.5) |
| 17 |
Clemson Tigers
|
1.073 (9.3-2.7) |
| 18 |
LSU Tigers
|
1.068 (8.5-3.5) |
| 19 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
0.946 (8.3-3.7) |
| 20 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.932 (6.6-5.4) |
| 21 |
Boise State Broncos
|
0.905 (10.3-1.7) |
| 22 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.897 (8.8-3.2) |
| 23 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.817 (7.5-4.5) |
| 24 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
0.788 (7.3-4.7) |
| 25 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.769 (7.5-4.5) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.47 |
| 3 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
1.46 |
| 10 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.05 |
| 13 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.54 |
| 15 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-0.52 |
| 16 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Clemson Tigers
|
-0.29 |
| 18 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
1.20 |
| 20 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
5.15 |
| 21 |
Boise State Broncos
|
-0.76 |
| 22 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
1.99 |
| 24 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
0.92 |
| 25 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.18 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Army West Point
|
0.81 |
Washington State Cougars
|
0.94 |
Colorado Buffaloes
|
0.64 |
Total Score: 15.91