Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 13, 2024, 8:16 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Notes for this week: USC, West Virginia, Oklahoma (OU SUCKS! I can say this and be unbiased because it's a computer model) dropped out.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
no change - going to keep the model rankings here because yes Oregon did beat them, but it was extremely close and Oregon had home-field advantage. So you could definitely make the argument that OSU is the better team on a neutral site. I don't necessarily agree with that argument though. |
| 2 |
Texas Longhorns
|
no change |
| 3 |
Oregon Ducks
|
no change (see Ohio State reasoning) |
| 4 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
+1 |
| 5 |
Clemson Tigers
|
+7 |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
-2 |
| 7 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
no change |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
-2 |
| 9 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
+1 |
| 10 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-1, similar to OSU reasoning. Model puts them above LSU and I realize they just lost head-to-head, but it went to OT at Death Valley so maybe that says something? |
| 11 |
LSU Tigers
|
-3 |
| 12 |
James Madison Dukes
|
+5 |
| 13 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-2 |
| 14 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
no change |
| 15 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
+1 |
| 16 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
-3 |
| 17 |
BYU Cougars
|
+6 |
| 18 |
Boise State Broncos
|
+6 |
| 19 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
-1 |
| 20 |
Missouri Tigers
|
+1 |
| 21 |
Army West Point
|
+1 |
| 22 |
Washington Huskies
|
-7, again going with the model but for real, giving up 40 to Iowa should make you automatically drop out. |
| 23 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
+13 |
| 24 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
+27 |
| 25 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
+1, but my Michigan friends disagree with this and insist they should be unranked |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.60 |
| 2 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Oregon Ducks
|
-0.03 |
| 4 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.18 |
| 5 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.85 |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
-0.10 |
| 7 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.84 |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.33 |
| 10 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1.88 |
| 11 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
James Madison Dukes
|
12.76 |
| 13 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-1.16 |
| 14 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
-1.24 |
| 15 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
10.22 |
| 16 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
BYU Cougars
|
-1.11 |
| 18 |
Boise State Broncos
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
-0.71 |
| 20 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
Army West Point
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
Washington Huskies
|
3.25 |
| 23 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
1.91 |
| 24 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
1.21 |
| 25 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
1.07 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
1.73 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.99 |
Navy Midshipmen
|
0.17 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
0.43 |
Total Score: 42.75