Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 13, 2024, 8:16 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Notes for this week: USC, West Virginia, Oklahoma (OU SUCKS! I can say this and be unbiased because it's a computer model) dropped out.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | no change - going to keep the model rankings here because yes Oregon did beat them, but it was extremely close and Oregon had home-field advantage. So you could definitely make the argument that OSU is the better team on a neutral site. I don't necessarily agree with that argument though. |
2 | Texas Longhorns | no change |
3 | Oregon Ducks | no change (see Ohio State reasoning) |
4 | Georgia Bulldogs | +1 |
5 | Clemson Tigers | +7 |
6 | Penn State Nittany Lions | -2 |
7 | Tennessee Volunteers | no change |
8 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -2 |
9 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | +1 |
10 | Ole Miss Rebels | -1, similar to OSU reasoning. Model puts them above LSU and I realize they just lost head-to-head, but it went to OT at Death Valley so maybe that says something? |
11 | LSU Tigers | -3 |
12 | James Madison Dukes | +5 |
13 | Miami Hurricanes | -2 |
14 | Iowa State Cyclones | no change |
15 | Tulane Green Wave | +1 |
16 | Texas A&M Aggies | -3 |
17 | BYU Cougars | +6 |
18 | Boise State Broncos | +6 |
19 | Indiana Hoosiers | -1 |
20 | Missouri Tigers | +1 |
21 | Army West Point | +1 |
22 | Washington Huskies | -7, again going with the model but for real, giving up 40 to Iowa should make you automatically drop out. |
23 | Louisville Cardinals | +13 |
24 | Wisconsin Badgers | +27 |
25 | Michigan Wolverines | +1, but my Michigan friends disagree with this and insist they should be unranked |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.60 |
2 | Texas Longhorns | 0.00 |
3 | Oregon Ducks | -0.03 |
4 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.18 |
5 | Clemson Tigers | 0.85 |
6 | Penn State Nittany Lions | -0.10 |
7 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.84 |
8 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
9 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.33 |
10 | Ole Miss Rebels | 1.88 |
11 | LSU Tigers | 0.00 |
12 | James Madison Dukes | 12.76 |
13 | Miami Hurricanes | -1.16 |
14 | Iowa State Cyclones | -1.24 |
15 | Tulane Green Wave | 10.22 |
16 | Texas A&M Aggies | 0.00 |
17 | BYU Cougars | -1.11 |
18 | Boise State Broncos | 0.00 |
19 | Indiana Hoosiers | -0.71 |
20 | Missouri Tigers | 0.00 |
21 | Army West Point | 0.00 |
22 | Washington Huskies | 3.25 |
23 | Louisville Cardinals | 1.91 |
24 | Wisconsin Badgers | 1.21 |
25 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Pittsburgh Panthers | 1.07 |
Kansas State Wildcats | 1.73 |
SMU Mustangs | 0.99 |
Navy Midshipmen | 0.17 |
Illinois Fighting Illini | 0.43 |
Total Score: 42.75