NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2024 Week 8
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 14, 2024, 12:43 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Texas Longhorns
|
1.738 (10.9-1.1) |
| 2 |
Oregon Ducks
|
1.680 (10.6-1.4) |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
1.591 (10.0-2.0) |
| 4 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
1.406 (10.1-1.9) |
| 5 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
1.254 (10.1-1.9) |
| 6 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.217 (9.3-2.7) |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1.197 (8.9-3.1) |
| 8 |
BYU Cougars
|
1.153 (9.9-2.1) |
| 9 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
1.150 (10.4-1.6) |
| 10 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
1.136 (9.6-2.4) |
| 11 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.072 (9.8-2.2) |
| 12 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
1.063 (9.0-3.0) |
| 13 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
1.052 (7.4-4.6) |
| 14 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.040 (9.4-2.6) |
| 15 |
SMU Mustangs
|
1.031 (9.4-2.6) |
| 16 |
LSU Tigers
|
1.000 (8.5-3.5) |
| 17 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.966 (9.3-2.7) |
| 18 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.955 (8.8-3.2) |
| 19 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.909 (8.5-3.5) |
| 20 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.887 (8.1-3.9) |
| 21 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.846 (7.7-4.3) |
| 22 |
USC Trojans
|
0.809 (6.9-5.1) |
| 23 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.798 (8.6-3.4) |
| 24 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.773 (7.1-4.9) |
| 25 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
0.759 (7.0-5.0) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.05 |
| 4 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.30 |
| 6 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.09 |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.47 |
| 13 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
8.35 |
| 14 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.88 |
| 16 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Clemson Tigers
|
-0.10 |
| 18 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
-0.31 |
| 20 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
4.63 |
| 21 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
3.91 |
| 22 |
USC Trojans
|
2.98 |
| 23 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.75 |
| 25 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
0.21 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Boise State Broncos
|
1.49 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.71 |
Army West Point
|
0.24 |
Navy Midshipmen
|
0.17 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
0.43 |
Total Score: 26.08