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70stang Ballot for 2024 Week 7

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Oct. 7, 2024, 4:28 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Welcome back to the Report Card Poll! THIS IS NOT A PREDICTIVE POLL. The key tenet of this poll is that pre-season polls are bullshit, and poll inertia is extremely bullshit. I endeavor to eliminate as much poll inertia as possible. This poll is entirely resume based. It is not intended to be predictive in any way. We're here to generate a Report Card. What have you accomplished on the field so far this season? That's the only question that matters. The result is generated almost entirely algorithmically. I reserve human input strictly for scenarios where things like head-to-head may be important (UGA and Clemson this week is a great example). All P5 teams are equal, all G5 teams are equal, and all FCS teams are equal. This is a black box methodology. WEEKLY NOTES: As of last week, a ranked win is a win earned against a team that was ranked in the PREVIOUS poll, not necessarily in this one. You'll notice Penn State has a ranked win over Illinois, but they aren't in the poll this week. This is done to reduce vicious circles of self-supporting rankings; In order for a ranked win to be viable, you and your opponent both need to be good enough to stay in the poll. We're trying to remove the "rank a team at 23 right before they play number 3 so that it's a ranked matchup and number 3 claims a ranked win for the rest of the year over a team who ultimately finished 5-7." Beating a team who was "ranked" in week 2 doesn't count for shit here, unless they continue performing at a high level and earn their ranking. The flip side is that if you beat an "unranked" team in week 2 who goes on to win many games and become ranked, that becomes a ranked win for you.

Rank Team Reason
1 Penn State Nittany Lions TIER 1 - Undefeated Teams with 3 P5 wins Penn State tops this tier and my poll, with a 5-0 record that includes a ranked win over Illinois among 3 P5 wins, and 2 G5 wins as well. Penn State takes this position as they are the only team in this tier (undefeated with 3 P5 wins) that has a ranked win, as Illinois made it in at 25th last week. It's worth noting that the next two teams take their spots due to playing 6 games already instead of 5, but the difference is an FCS game for Miami and IU, whereas Penn State has not played an FCS team and has a ranked win, which puts them over the edge.
2 Miami Hurricanes Miami is 6-0 with 3 P5 wins, including two away, as well as 2 G5 wins, including one away, and 1 FCS win. They take this spot over Indiana due to playing a G5 away game.
3 Indiana Hoosiers Indiana is 6-0 with 3 P5 wins, including two away, as well as 2 G5 wins and 1 FCS win.
4 BYU Cougars BYU is 5-0 with 3 P5 wins, including two away, as well as 1 G5 win away and 1 FCS win. They take this spot over the next three teams due to playing an extra away game against a G5 team.
5 Iowa State Cyclones Iowa State is 5-0 with 3 P5 wins, including two away, as well as 1 G5 win and 1 FCS win. Strength of opponents played places them here above Oregon and Pitt at 37th.
6 Oregon Ducks Oregon is 5-0 with 3 P5 wins, including two away, as well as 1 G5 win and 1 FCS win. Strength of opponents played is 40th.
7 Pittsburgh Panthers Pitt is 5-0 with 3 P5 wins, including two away, as well as 1 G5 win and 1 FCS win. Strength of opponents played is 62nd.
8 Ohio State Buckeyes TIER 2 - Undefeated Teams with 2 P5 Wins Ohio State tops this tier at 5-0 with 2 P5 wins, including one away, as well as 3 G5 wins. Strength of opponents played places them above Texas, at 29th.
9 Texas Longhorns Texas is 5-0 with 2 P5 wins, including one away, as well as 3 G5 wins. Strength of opponents played is 31st.
10 Nebraska Cornhuskers TIER 3 - 5-1 Teams with 3 P5 Wins Nebraska tops this tier at 5-1 with 3 P5 wins including two ranked wins against Rutgers and Colorado (both made the poll last week!), 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a home loss to Illinois. They take the top spot in this tier due to having two ranked wins. It is worth noting here, that there ARE 4-1 teams with 3 P5 wins. Notre Dame is an example. The win loss percentage being the first thing my poll looks at (83.3% win rate for a 5-1 team vs 80% for a 4-1 team) is what keeps those teams out of this tier. This will normalize as the season progresses, but the 5-1 teams have a higher winning percentage with more games played, which is objectively a better resume in my algorithm.
11 Texas A&M Aggies A&M takes second in this tier at 5-1 with 3 P5 wins, including one ranked win against Mizzou, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a home loss to Notre Dame. One less ranked win keeps them below Nebraska.
12 SMU Mustangs SMU is 5-1 with 3 P5 wins, including one away, as well as 1 G5 win away, 1 FCS win, and a home loss to BYU. They take this spot over Texas Tech due to playing a G5 game away.
13 Texas Tech Red Raiders Texas Tech is 5-1 with 3 P5 wins, including one away, as well as 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and an away loss to Wazzu.
14 Ole Miss Rebels TIER 4 - 5-1 Teams with 2 P5 Wins Ole Miss tops this tier at 5-1 with 2 P5 wins away, 2 G5 wins, 1 FCS win, and a home loss to Kentucky. They take this spot over Duke due to winning 2 P5 away games to Duke's 1.
15 Duke Blue Devils Duke is 5-1 with 2 P5 wins, including one away, 2 G5 wins including one away, 1 FCS win, and an away loss to Georgia Tech.
16 Georgia Bulldogs TIER 5 - 4-1 Teams with 3 P5 Wins Georgia tops this tier at 4-1, with 3 P5 wins including one away and one neutral, 1 FCS win, and an away loss to Alabama.
17 Clemson Tigers Clemson is 4-1, with 3 P5 wins including one away, 1 G5 win, and a neutral loss to UGA. The head to head loss to UGA places them lower.
18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish ND is 4-1 with 3 P5 wins including two away, 1 G5 win, and a loss to G5 Northern Illinois at home. Ordinarily, Notre Dame would be above Clemson with 2 away wins over P5 teams, but the loss to a G5 at home is working against them here.
19 Army West Point TIER 6 - Undefeated Teams with No P5 Wins (The Undefeated G5 Tier) These teams deserve to be ranked, at least for the time being, although I feel personally that these are nowhere near the 3 best G5 teams. UNLV, Boise, Toledo are all looming in the background with 1 loss and much better wins. The algorithm makes the rules here though. Army is 5-0 with 4 G5 wins including three away, as well as 1 FCS win.
20 Navy Midshipmen Navy is 5-0 with 4 G5 wins including two away, and 1 FCS win. They take this spot over Liberty due to playing one more game.
21 Liberty Flames Liberty is 4-0 with 3 G5 wins and 1 FCS win.
22 UNLV Rebels TIER 7 - 4-1 Teams with 2 P5 Wins UNLV is 4-1 with 2 P5 wins away, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a home loss to Syracuse. They take the top spot in this tier due to winning both of their P5 games away.
23 Tennessee Volunteers Tennessee is 4-1 with 2 P5 wins, one away and one neutral, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and an away loss to Arkansas.
24 Colorado Buffaloes Colorado is 4-1 with 2 P5 wins, including one away, as well as 1 G5 win away, 1 FCS win, and an away loss to Nebraska. Tennessee playing the extra non-home P5 game gives them the edge.
25 Utah Utes Utah is 4-1 with 2 P5 wins, including one away, as well as 1 G5 win away, 1 FCS win, and a home loss to Arizona. Receiving votes (there are 29 teams in the FBS at 4-1 by the way): Virginia, Alabama, Illinois, Rutgers, LSU, etc etc

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