NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2024 Week 7
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 7, 2024, 3:26 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
1.766 (10.6-1.4) |
| 2 |
Texas Longhorns
|
1.509 (10.4-1.6) |
| 3 |
Oregon Ducks
|
1.471 (10.0-2.0) |
| 4 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
1.289 (9.6-2.4) |
| 5 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1.242 (9.1-2.9) |
| 6 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
1.188 (9.6-2.4) |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.157 (9.3-2.7) |
| 8 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
1.118 (10.3-1.7) |
| 9 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
1.050 (9.5-2.5) |
| 10 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
1.046 (7.4-4.6) |
| 11 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.042 (9.3-2.7) |
| 12 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1.033 (9.3-2.7) |
| 13 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.995 (9.4-2.6) |
| 14 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.991 (9.3-2.7) |
| 15 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.991 (9.6-2.4) |
| 16 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.954 (8.8-3.2) |
| 17 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.883 (9.0-3.0) |
| 18 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.880 (7.9-4.1) |
| 19 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.880 (8.6-3.4) |
| 20 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.880 (7.6-4.4) |
| 21 |
USC Trojans
|
0.867 (7.2-4.8) |
| 22 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.854 (8.5-3.5) |
| 23 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.776 (6.9-5.1) |
| 24 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.771 (7.5-4.5) |
| 25 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
0.756 (7.8-4.2) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.57 |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
6.92 |
| 11 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 13 |
SMU Mustangs
|
1.39 |
| 14 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
USC Trojans
|
2.97 |
| 22 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Washington Huskies
|
1.72 |
| 24 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
1.03 |
| 25 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Boise State Broncos
|
0.91 |
Utah Utes
|
0.58 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.39 |
Total Score: 16.48