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Pablo49 Ballot for 2024 Week 6

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 1, 2024, 9:15 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Each game, the winning team "steals" a portion of their opponents points. This starts with a base 40% of opponent's points, plus up to 1% bonus based on margin of victory and home/away status. This 40% base decreases as the weeks go on (down to 17.5% by postseason), this is done to limit large swings as the season progresses. The season is ran both forwards and backwards (For example on week 10, the poll calculates weeks 1->10 and then weeks 10->1) and then averages those. This limits being destroyed by a week 1 loss, etc. Starting points are assigned as follows: P5: 500, G5: 400, FCS: 200. Previous year season is ran using these starting points. Current year starts with these points, but up to an additional 500 starting points based on last year's rankings. (i.e. #1 2022 starts season with 1000 points (if P5), and downwards from there). The goal of this poll is to (mostly) treat P5 and G5 the same, and rank deserving teams. G5 is punished slightly in the pre-season calculations (20% less points), and even less in current season (~10% less than P5). This is ranking the most "deserving" teams and not an attempt to rank the "best" teams or to be predictive. For example, being ranked above another team does not imply you are the better team or should beat a lower team, just that you had better performance in your season. While this is not a particularly statistical method, as the season develops the top 10 especially usually shake out pretty decently. In the 4 years I have ran this poll (with some revisions), this poll has repeatedly produced the same CFP top 4 (not always, and usually different seeds). Being a computer poll, there's not a lot of data yet so lots of huge swings. In particular a number of updates really shook things up, to the point where I did not vote last week to buy some time for my poll to settle a bit.

Rank Team Reason
1 Texas Longhorns 3810 - TEXAS IS BACK
2 Alabama Crimson Tide 3312
3 BYU Cougars
4 Oregon Ducks 3045
5 Missouri Tigers 2928
6 Duke Blue Devils 2907
7 Michigan Wolverines 2839
8 Penn State Nittany Lions 2749
9 Tennessee Volunteers 2718
10 Ohio State Buckeyes 2594 - ain't played nobody yet sorry
11 Miami Hurricanes 2480
12 Indiana Hoosiers 2442
13 Iowa State Cyclones 2423
14 Washington State Cougars 2386
15 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 2321
16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2294
17 Pittsburgh Panthers 2202
18 Georgia Bulldogs 2177 - early enough in season that no team can take a loss without dropping a ton of spots the week after. Also Georgia was only #5 last week in my computer.
19 Kansas State Wildcats 2045
20 James Madison Dukes 2040
21 Texas Tech Red Raiders 1995
22 USC Trojans 1960
23 Liberty Flames 1936
24 Illinois Fighting Illini 1830
25 Navy Midshipmen 1819

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