Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 30, 2024, 9:46 a.m.
Overall Rationale: A team earns more points by beating good teams (per SP+) than by beating bad teams. Vice versa for losses - a team loses more points by losing to bad teams (losses to good teams are forgivable). Margin of victory and other game stats are not accounted for in this ranking.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1 SP+ T-10 win (Georgia). |
2 | Texas Longhorns | T2. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Michigan). |
3 | BYU Cougars | T2. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Kansas State). 1 SP+ T-50 win (SMU). |
4 | Michigan Wolverines | 1 SP+ T-25 win (USC). 1 SP+ T-50 win (Minnesota). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Texas). This model views Michigan's loss to Texas as "forgivable" because Texas is considered one of the best teams per SP+ - they were supposed to lose to them. |
5 | Miami Hurricanes | 2 SP+ T-50 wins (Florida, Virginia Tech). |
6 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 1 SP+ T-25 win (Washington). 1 SP+ T-50 win (Virginia Tech). |
7 | Tennessee Volunteers | T7. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Oklahoma). |
8 | Oklahoma Sooners | T7. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Auburn). This one is a bit of a shock, but Billy Connelly's SP+ has 2-3 Auburn as the #20 team in the country. So, for now, this model sees Oklahoma's comeback win against the Tigers as a win against a quality team. |
9 | Illinois Fighting Illini | T7. 2 SP+ T-50 wins (Kansas, Nebraska). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Penn State). |
10 | Georgia Bulldogs | 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Clemson, Kentucky). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Alabama). Illinois has a slight edge over Georgia in this week's rankings primarily because they have one more data point than Georgia. |
11 | Penn State Nittany Lions | T11. 1 SP+ T-50 win (Illinois). |
12 | Iowa State Cyclones | T11. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Iowa). |
13 | USC Trojans | 1 SP+ T-25 win (LSU). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Michigan). |
14 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | T14. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Texas A&M, Louisville). 1 SP+ below-50 loss (Northern Illinois). |
15 | Indiana Hoosiers | T14. 1 SP+ T-50 win (Maryland). |
16 | Duke Blue Devils | T14. 1 SP+ T-50 win (UNC). |
17 | Oregon Ducks | 1 SP+ T-50 win (Boise State). |
18 | Texas A&M Aggies | T18. 2 SP+ T-50 wins (Florida, Arkansas). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Notre Dame). |
19 | South Carolina Gamecocks | T18. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Kentucky). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (LSU). |
20 | Boston College Eagles | 1 SP+ T-50 win (Florida State). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Missouri). |
21 | Ohio State Buckeyes | T21. 0 SP+ T-50 wins. Ohio State is probably a Top 5 team, but they haven't had a chance to prove it yet because they've had a weak schedule up to this point. |
22 | Kentucky Wildcats | T21. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Ole Miss). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Georgia). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (South Carolina). |
23 | James Madison Dukes | T21. 1 SP+ T-50 win (UNC). James Madison holds the top spot among G5 teams in this model. |
24 | UNLV Rebels | T21. 1 SP+ T-50 win (Kansas). |
25 | Pittsburgh Panthers | T25. 0 SP+ T-25 wins. |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
2 | Texas Longhorns | 0.00 |
3 | BYU Cougars | 1.11 |
4 | Michigan Wolverines | 1.24 |
5 | Miami Hurricanes | 0.28 |
6 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 3.44 |
7 | Tennessee Volunteers | -0.14 |
8 | Oklahoma Sooners | 2.46 |
9 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 3.69 |
10 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 |
11 | Penn State Nittany Lions | -1.13 |
12 | Iowa State Cyclones | 0.00 |
13 | USC Trojans | 0.00 |
14 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.00 |
15 | Indiana Hoosiers | 0.00 |
16 | Duke Blue Devils | 1.21 |
17 | Oregon Ducks | -3.46 |
18 | Texas A&M Aggies | 3.70 |
19 | South Carolina Gamecocks | 5.90 |
20 | Boston College Eagles | 4.69 |
21 | Ohio State Buckeyes | -4.39 |
22 | Kentucky Wildcats | 2.89 |
23 | James Madison Dukes | 0.00 |
24 | UNLV Rebels | 0.00 |
25 | Pittsburgh Panthers | 0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Missouri Tigers | 4.06 |
Clemson Tigers | 1.20 |
Ole Miss Rebels | 1.12 |
LSU Tigers | 0.98 |
Kansas State Wildcats | 0.80 |
Utah Utes | 0.50 |
Boise State Broncos | 0.30 |
Louisville Cardinals | 0.16 |
Total Score: 48.85