Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 30, 2024, 9:46 a.m.
Overall Rationale: A team earns more points by beating good teams (per SP+) than by beating bad teams. Vice versa for losses - a team loses more points by losing to bad teams (losses to good teams are forgivable). Margin of victory and other game stats are not accounted for in this ranking.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1 SP+ T-10 win (Georgia). |
| 2 |
Texas Longhorns
|
T2. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Michigan). |
| 3 |
BYU Cougars
|
T2. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Kansas State). 1 SP+ T-50 win (SMU). |
| 4 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
1 SP+ T-25 win (USC). 1 SP+ T-50 win (Minnesota). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Texas). This model views Michigan's loss to Texas as "forgivable" because Texas is considered one of the best teams per SP+ - they were supposed to lose to them. |
| 5 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
2 SP+ T-50 wins (Florida, Virginia Tech). |
| 6 |
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
|
1 SP+ T-25 win (Washington). 1 SP+ T-50 win (Virginia Tech). |
| 7 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
T7. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Oklahoma). |
| 8 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
T7. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Auburn). This one is a bit of a shock, but Billy Connelly's SP+ has 2-3 Auburn as the #20 team in the country. So, for now, this model sees Oklahoma's comeback win against the Tigers as a win against a quality team. |
| 9 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
T7. 2 SP+ T-50 wins (Kansas, Nebraska). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Penn State). |
| 10 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
2 SP+ T-25 wins (Clemson, Kentucky). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Alabama). Illinois has a slight edge over Georgia in this week's rankings primarily because they have one more data point than Georgia. |
| 11 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
T11. 1 SP+ T-50 win (Illinois). |
| 12 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
T11. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Iowa). |
| 13 |
USC Trojans
|
1 SP+ T-25 win (LSU). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Michigan). |
| 14 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
T14. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Texas A&M, Louisville). 1 SP+ below-50 loss (Northern Illinois). |
| 15 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
T14. 1 SP+ T-50 win (Maryland). |
| 16 |
Duke Blue Devils
|
T14. 1 SP+ T-50 win (UNC). |
| 17 |
Oregon Ducks
|
1 SP+ T-50 win (Boise State). |
| 18 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
T18. 2 SP+ T-50 wins (Florida, Arkansas). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Notre Dame). |
| 19 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
T18. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Kentucky). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (LSU). |
| 20 |
Boston College Eagles
|
1 SP+ T-50 win (Florida State). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Missouri). |
| 21 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
T21. 0 SP+ T-50 wins. Ohio State is probably a Top 5 team, but they haven't had a chance to prove it yet because they've had a weak schedule up to this point. |
| 22 |
Kentucky Wildcats
|
T21. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Ole Miss). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Georgia). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (South Carolina). |
| 23 |
James Madison Dukes
|
T21. 1 SP+ T-50 win (UNC). James Madison holds the top spot among G5 teams in this model. |
| 24 |
UNLV Rebels
|
T21. 1 SP+ T-50 win (Kansas). |
| 25 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
T25. 0 SP+ T-25 wins. |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
BYU Cougars
|
1.11 |
| 4 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
1.24 |
| 5 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.28 |
| 6 |
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
|
3.44 |
| 7 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
-0.14 |
| 8 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
2.46 |
| 9 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
3.69 |
| 10 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
-1.13 |
| 12 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.00 |
| 13 |
USC Trojans
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Duke Blue Devils
|
1.21 |
| 17 |
Oregon Ducks
|
-3.46 |
| 18 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
3.70 |
| 19 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
5.90 |
| 20 |
Boston College Eagles
|
4.69 |
| 21 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
-4.39 |
| 22 |
Kentucky Wildcats
|
2.89 |
| 23 |
James Madison Dukes
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
UNLV Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Missouri Tigers
|
4.06 |
Clemson Tigers
|
1.20 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1.12 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.98 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.80 |
Utah Utes
|
0.50 |
Boise State Broncos
|
0.30 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.16 |
Total Score: 48.85