Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 30, 2024, 9:46 a.m.
Overall Rationale: A team earns more points by beating good teams (per SP+) than by beating bad teams. Vice versa for losses - a team loses more points by losing to bad teams (losses to good teams are forgivable). Margin of victory and other game stats are not accounted for in this ranking.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 |
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1 SP+ T-10 win (Georgia). |
2 |
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T2. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Michigan). |
3 |
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T2. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Kansas State). 1 SP+ T-50 win (SMU). |
4 |
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1 SP+ T-25 win (USC). 1 SP+ T-50 win (Minnesota). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Texas). This model views Michigan's loss to Texas as "forgivable" because Texas is considered one of the best teams per SP+ - they were supposed to lose to them. |
5 |
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2 SP+ T-50 wins (Florida, Virginia Tech). |
6 |
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1 SP+ T-25 win (Washington). 1 SP+ T-50 win (Virginia Tech). |
7 |
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T7. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Oklahoma). |
8 |
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T7. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Auburn). This one is a bit of a shock, but Billy Connelly's SP+ has 2-3 Auburn as the #20 team in the country. So, for now, this model sees Oklahoma's comeback win against the Tigers as a win against a quality team. |
9 |
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T7. 2 SP+ T-50 wins (Kansas, Nebraska). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Penn State). |
10 |
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2 SP+ T-25 wins (Clemson, Kentucky). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Alabama). Illinois has a slight edge over Georgia in this week's rankings primarily because they have one more data point than Georgia. |
11 |
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T11. 1 SP+ T-50 win (Illinois). |
12 |
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T11. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Iowa). |
13 |
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1 SP+ T-25 win (LSU). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Michigan). |
14 |
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T14. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Texas A&M, Louisville). 1 SP+ below-50 loss (Northern Illinois). |
15 |
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T14. 1 SP+ T-50 win (Maryland). |
16 |
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T14. 1 SP+ T-50 win (UNC). |
17 |
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1 SP+ T-50 win (Boise State). |
18 |
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T18. 2 SP+ T-50 wins (Florida, Arkansas). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Notre Dame). |
19 |
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T18. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Kentucky). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (LSU). |
20 |
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1 SP+ T-50 win (Florida State). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Missouri). |
21 |
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T21. 0 SP+ T-50 wins. Ohio State is probably a Top 5 team, but they haven't had a chance to prove it yet because they've had a weak schedule up to this point. |
22 |
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T21. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Ole Miss). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Georgia). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (South Carolina). |
23 |
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T21. 1 SP+ T-50 win (UNC). James Madison holds the top spot among G5 teams in this model. |
24 |
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T21. 1 SP+ T-50 win (Kansas). |
25 |
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T25. 0 SP+ T-25 wins. |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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0.00 |
2 |
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0.00 |
3 |
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1.11 |
4 |
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1.24 |
5 |
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0.28 |
6 |
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3.44 |
7 |
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-0.14 |
8 |
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2.46 |
9 |
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3.69 |
10 |
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0.00 |
11 |
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-1.13 |
12 |
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0.00 |
13 |
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0.00 |
14 |
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0.00 |
15 |
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0.00 |
16 |
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1.21 |
17 |
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-3.46 |
18 |
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3.70 |
19 |
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5.90 |
20 |
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4.69 |
21 |
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-4.39 |
22 |
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2.89 |
23 |
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0.00 |
24 |
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0.00 |
25 |
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0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
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4.06 |
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1.20 |
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1.12 |
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0.98 |
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0.80 |
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0.50 |
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0.30 |
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0.16 |
Total Score: 48.85