Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 30, 2024, midnight
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Notes for this week: Fresno State, Utah, Oklahoma dropped out.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 |
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+1 |
2 |
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-1 |
3 |
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no change |
4 |
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no change |
5 |
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+4 |
6 |
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+4 |
7 |
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+1 |
8 |
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+3 |
9 |
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-3 |
10 |
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-3 |
11 |
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-6 |
12 |
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+31 |
13 |
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-1 |
14 |
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+4 |
15 |
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+4 |
16 |
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+28 |
17 |
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-1 |
18 |
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-5 |
19 |
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+1 |
20 |
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-5 |
21 |
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+9 |
22 |
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-8 |
23 |
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no change |
24 |
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-7 |
25 |
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-4, I forced out Tulane at #25 because they have 2 losses and South Carolina is more deserving (BYU, the next team out, is probably even more deserving but I'll use the model rank-order for now). |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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0.26 |
2 |
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0.00 |
3 |
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-0.31 |
4 |
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0.08 |
5 |
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0.00 |
6 |
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0.00 |
7 |
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0.00 |
8 |
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1.29 |
9 |
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0.80 |
10 |
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0.73 |
11 |
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0.00 |
12 |
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3.24 |
13 |
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0.00 |
14 |
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-0.56 |
15 |
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10.20 |
16 |
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0.62 |
17 |
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-0.04 |
18 |
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-0.22 |
19 |
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0.00 |
20 |
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0.28 |
21 |
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0.00 |
22 |
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1.12 |
23 |
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1.80 |
24 |
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-0.34 |
25 |
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0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
![]() |
1.47 |
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0.80 |
![]() |
0.62 |
![]() |
0.50 |
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0.08 |
Total Score: 25.36