Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 30, 2024, midnight
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Notes for this week: Fresno State, Utah, Oklahoma dropped out.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | +1 |
2 | Texas Longhorns | -1 |
3 | Alabama Crimson Tide | no change |
4 | Georgia Bulldogs | no change |
5 | Oregon Ducks | +4 |
6 | Tennessee Volunteers | +4 |
7 | Penn State Nittany Lions | +1 |
8 | LSU Tigers | +3 |
9 | Ole Miss Rebels | -3 |
10 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -3 |
11 | Miami Hurricanes | -6 |
12 | James Madison Dukes | +31 |
13 | USC Trojans | -1 |
14 | Missouri Tigers | +4 |
15 | Washington Huskies | +4 |
16 | UNLV Rebels | +28 |
17 | Iowa State Cyclones | -1 |
18 | Michigan Wolverines | -5 |
19 | Clemson Tigers | +1 |
20 | Louisville Cardinals | -5 |
21 | Boise State Broncos | +9 |
22 | Texas A&M Aggies | -8 |
23 | Iowa Hawkeyes | no change |
24 | Indiana Hoosiers | -7 |
25 | South Carolina Gamecocks | -4, I forced out Tulane at #25 because they have 2 losses and South Carolina is more deserving (BYU, the next team out, is probably even more deserving but I'll use the model rank-order for now). |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.26 |
2 | Texas Longhorns | 0.00 |
3 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -0.31 |
4 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.08 |
5 | Oregon Ducks | 0.00 |
6 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.00 |
7 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.00 |
8 | LSU Tigers | 1.29 |
9 | Ole Miss Rebels | 0.80 |
10 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.73 |
11 | Miami Hurricanes | 0.00 |
12 | James Madison Dukes | 3.24 |
13 | USC Trojans | 0.00 |
14 | Missouri Tigers | -0.56 |
15 | Washington Huskies | 10.20 |
16 | UNLV Rebels | 0.62 |
17 | Iowa State Cyclones | -0.04 |
18 | Michigan Wolverines | -0.22 |
19 | Clemson Tigers | 0.00 |
20 | Louisville Cardinals | 0.28 |
21 | Boise State Broncos | 0.00 |
22 | Texas A&M Aggies | 1.12 |
23 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 1.80 |
24 | Indiana Hoosiers | -0.34 |
25 | South Carolina Gamecocks | 0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
BYU Cougars | 1.47 |
Kansas State Wildcats | 0.80 |
Oklahoma Sooners | 0.62 |
Utah Utes | 0.50 |
Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 0.08 |
Total Score: 25.36