Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 29, 2024, 11:25 a.m.

Overall Rationale: The biased unbiased rankings are back. This is essentially a Colley matrix with bias (i.e. every team does not start at .5). The advantage of this is the early rankings should be a lot more palatable than the normal Colley matrix's early rankings. Last year, I used bias based on the previous years ranking, and it caused some weird stuff occasionally. This year I'm going to bias the teams by ESPN's FPI. Essentially, the rating they begin at starts around 1 and descends. At the 50th team, I stop adding any bias (meaning I don't adjust a team lower than .5). This is because last year, this system really punished teams who underwent big turnarounds, and I want to avoid that. Starting this week I'll use a simple regression to estimate a spread, and track the ROI of it week to week (e.g. South Alabama vs App State (-6.5), say the regression indicates a spread of App State -2.5, then I will take South Alabama (+6.5) etc). If the regression equation indicates the underdog should be favored, I take moneyline. This weeks ROI : +16.05% Overall ROI (EW) : +16.05% Biggest win: Sam Houston State +245 over Texas State.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Texas Longhorns
3	Oregon Ducks
4	Ohio State Buckeyes
5	Georgia Bulldogs
6	Tennessee Volunteers
7	Penn State Nittany Lions
8	Missouri Tigers
9	Michigan Wolverines
10	BYU Cougars
11	USC Trojans
12	Indiana Hoosiers
13	Miami Hurricanes
14	Iowa State Cyclones
15	Notre Dame Fighting Irish
16	Clemson Tigers
17	Kansas State Wildcats
18	LSU Tigers
19	Oklahoma Sooners
20	Boise State Broncos
21	South Carolina Gamecocks
22	Duke Blue Devils
23	Texas A&M Aggies
24	Rutgers Scarlet Knights
25	SMU Mustangs

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
2	Texas Longhorns	0.00
3	Oregon Ducks	0.69
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
5	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
6	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
7	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
8	Missouri Tigers	0.00
9	Michigan Wolverines	0.18
10	BYU Cougars	0.00
11	USC Trojans	0.17
12	Indiana Hoosiers	0.19
13	Miami Hurricanes	-0.55
14	Iowa State Cyclones	0.00
15	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
16	Clemson Tigers	0.00
17	Kansas State Wildcats	0.00
18	LSU Tigers	0.00
19	Oklahoma Sooners	0.00
20	Boise State Broncos	0.00
21	South Carolina Gamecocks	3.90
22	Duke Blue Devils	0.00
23	Texas A&M Aggies	0.48
24	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	0.00
25	SMU Mustangs	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Ole Miss Rebels	1.12
Utah Utes	0.50
UNLV Rebels	0.12
Louisville Cardinals	0.16

Total Score: 8.08