Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 29, 2024, 7:25 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	1.645 (10.4-1.6)
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	1.602 (10.2-1.8)
3	Texas Longhorns	1.502 (10.5-1.5)
4	Oregon Ducks	1.490 (10.1-1.9)
5	Tennessee Volunteers	1.486 (10.3-1.7)
6	Georgia Bulldogs	1.335 (9.2-2.8)
7	Penn State Nittany Lions	1.237 (9.6-2.4)
8	Michigan Wolverines	1.184 (8.1-3.9)
9	Indiana Hoosiers	1.042 (9.2-2.8)
10	BYU Cougars	1.028 (9.3-2.7)
11	USC Trojans	1.023 (8.1-3.9)
12	Kansas State Wildcats	0.977 (8.9-3.1)
13	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.968 (9.7-2.3)
14	Miami Hurricanes	0.961 (10.1-1.9)
15	Iowa State Cyclones	0.949 (9.1-2.9)
16	Oklahoma Sooners	0.907 (7.4-4.6)
17	LSU Tigers	0.890 (8.1-3.9)
18	Ole Miss Rebels	0.865 (8.8-3.2)
19	Louisville Cardinals	0.860 (8.2-3.8)
20	SMU Mustangs	0.825 (8.6-3.4)
21	Clemson Tigers	0.798 (8.7-3.3)
22	Illinois Fighting Illini	0.789 (7.8-4.2)
23	Missouri Tigers	0.785 (8.7-3.3)
24	UNLV Rebels	0.736 (10.2-1.8)
25	Utah Utes	0.724 (7.9-4.1)

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
3	Texas Longhorns	-0.35
4	Oregon Ducks	0.29
5	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
6	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
7	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
8	Michigan Wolverines	0.39
9	Indiana Hoosiers	0.70
10	BYU Cougars	0.00
11	USC Trojans	0.17
12	Kansas State Wildcats	1.09
13	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.09
14	Miami Hurricanes	-0.84
15	Iowa State Cyclones	0.00
16	Oklahoma Sooners	0.42
17	LSU Tigers	0.00
18	Ole Miss Rebels	0.00
19	Louisville Cardinals	0.60
20	SMU Mustangs	4.54
21	Clemson Tigers	-0.16
22	Illinois Fighting Illini	0.00
23	Missouri Tigers	-3.19
24	UNLV Rebels	0.00
25	Utah Utes	-0.22

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Boise State Broncos	0.30
Rutgers Scarlet Knights	0.08

Total Score: 13.44