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Noelthemexican Ballot for 2024 Week 5

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 22, 2024, 10:31 a.m.

Overall Rationale: MOTHER FUCKER. I found a mistake in my model. I pretty much was not calculating FCS in the strength of schedule. I have no idea what the effect of this was. Anyways. I fixed the glitch. Last week, I said this : "Starting this week I'll use a simple regression to estimate a spread, and track the ROI of it week to week (e.g. South Alabama vs App State (-6.5), say the regression indicates a spread of App State -2.5, then I will take South Alabama (+6.5) etc) " This is obviously an issue due to the problem I had regarding FCS teams, but also because I messed up the model in a couple ways. First, my table wasn't quite alphabetical, and that was causing VLOOKUP to not work properly (combine this with the problem of literally not having a rating for FCS teams, and you can see how this was an issue). Second, my regression model assumed an intercept, which I hoped would capture a home field advantage. Unfortunately, this early in the season, this "home field advantage" was massively overestimated because a large portion of the data is Home Field against FCS teams (extreme bias here). Anyways, I still did what I said I would, even though it just took the home team nearly every time. I will not include this last week in an overall ROI. ROI: -13.30% The biased unbiased rankings are back. This is essentially a Colley matrix with bias (i.e. every team does not start at .5). The advantage of this is the early rankings should be a lot more palatable than the normal Colley matrix's early rankings. Last year, I used bias based on the previous years ranking, and it caused some weird stuff occasionally. This year I'm going to bias the teams by ESPN's FPI. Essentially, the rating they begin at starts around 1 and descends. At the 50th team, I stop adding any bias (meaning I don't adjust a team lower than .5). This is because last year, this system really punished teams who underwent big turnarounds, and I want to avoid that.

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